Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The Endless Slide
Enough time has passed that I wanted to mention an idea I gave my Slope Plus subscribers back on November 21st. I wrote, in part, “USO did a perfect gap-fill at 29.08. I shorted some crude oil right here, since this is an extremely clean stop.” My stop was too tight (by a few pennies), but my readers have been warned of that many times, so I re-entered the short afterward. In any case, the gap is noted with the green arrow, and the post was written at the red arrow.
Even I remain stunned how far, and how fast, crude oil is collapsing. The prospect of oil heading to, say, $35 per barrel seems totally plausible to me. At least we have one unmanipulated market that illustrates that, under the fake surface, the world economy isn’t doing so hot.
Currency Wars – The Sauerkraut Conundrum
The next two days are important on the 5 DMA stats that I’ve been watching over the last few days. The previous two examples that retested the high before the break below the 5 DMA then retraced on the sixth and seventh days after the break. The break was six days ago so we shall see whether that repeats here.
By the end of Friday it was clear that the pattern from last last Monday’s low at 2049 is a rising wedge. That leans 70% bearish as and when it breaks of course, and could take SPX back to what would now be double-top support at 2049, targeting 2019 on a sustained break below that. That would be a retracement near the lower end of what we would expect to see after the end of a 20+ day 5 DMA run. A clear break below (wedge support and then) the 50 hour MA, now at 2068, should signal that a retracement has started. SPX 60min chart: (more…)
