Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Is Oil Ready to Bounce?

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My answer? Maybe. Not so helpful, eh? I will say this, however: we are at levels now not seen since the deepest depths of the financial crisis (remember that? It was about 300 years ago or so). I think energy is in serious trouble long-term, but I’ve stepped up with a medium-sized long position. Oh, and hey, Slope Plus folks – regarding the idea from a couple of days ago – I am long that position too.


E-mini S&P500 Market Analysis – December 11, 2014

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CCOC – Consecutive Closes Odds Calculator (TIME EXTENSION ANALYSIS)

Yesterday the market closed down again and made a lower low, but futures started to rise overnight, so it’s possible to have a rebound today. As you can see in the TIME EXTENSION ANALYSIS below, the DAILY time period shows that after 3 days down in a row the market closes the next day up in 87.67% of the times. This means in the largest majority of the cases the market does not go down more than 3 days in a row. Does that mean it cannot go down another day? Obviously not, it can go down 4, 5 or more days in a row, but these events (on average) are quite rare. Statistical research can show what is most possible but the exact prediction of the future will always escape us. We use our research to make bets on what it is most likely to happen (although it may not always happen). (more…)

Bears Can Occasionally Deliver

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It was refreshing to see the bears deliver a decent decline yesterday, with a clear fail at the retest of the daily middle band. SPX is now into the higher part of my target zone and there is now a very nice falling channel from the highs that should define the retracement. as and when this channel breaks up, this retracement should be over or ending. SPX 60min chart:

141211 SPX 60min Falling Channel

Now that the downtrend is more than just the bare minimum I would like to talk about the two main target zones here. I have two target areas within my target range, though I’ll expand that range slightly from 1995-2033 to 1990-2033. (more…)