Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

End of the Year Analysis E-mini S&P500 (ES)

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Chart Analysis

As you probably already know, we believe that charts (and all Technical Analysis) have zero predictive value, because charts are just showing past data and unless this data is used as a statistical predictor, the act of projecting all sort of visual fantasies (patterns, trends, etc.) or our bias, onto a chart, it’s just an exercise in self-delusion.

However, from time to time we like to throw in a chart or two to help the reader visualize where our levels are in comparison to the market current price, or to visualize the recent market action in relation to our levels. As this year 2014 is closing, we’d like to look at a SPX chart of the last 50 years (below). (more…)

Welcome, Baby 2015

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babynewyearSo Baby 2015 has slammed the book on wrinkled old 2014 (this imagery just cracks me up), a year that featured the continuation of existing macro trends like US stocks up, global stocks wobbling, precious metals weak and commodities weak to tanking.

Personally, I found the year revolting as an honest market participant, but thankfully made like a caveman and simply used my tools to help me avoid the pitfalls of my emotions and logical mind. I try very hard to tune down the Tin Foil Hat stuff, but I continue to be in awe of Policy Central and the depths of what looks to me like depravity that they will stoop to in order to keep up appearances. Reference Operation Twist and its “inflation sanitized” selling of short-term notes and buying of long-term bonds.

Who would’ve thought managing an economy and a financial system could be so easy, so controlled and well, so sanitary? Of course, that was way back in 2011, when the macro began to quake in anticipation of change. An anti-market (AKA gold) was brought under control but good and though the masses would hold tightly to their fear (so deeply ingrained from 2008) for another year or more, 2013 and 2014 saw increasing momentum toward a complete recovery of hurt feelings from the 2008 crisis time frame.