Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

A Decent Start

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That was a decent decline yesterday, though ideally bears should have controlled the close and they didn’t. The minimum requirement on all the various sell indicators that I was looking at on Friday and yesterday morning were met as the 15min and 60min sell signals made target, the RSI5/NYMO sell signal made a visual hit just shy of the 30 level at 31.54. That was a very near miss and I’d count that as close enough, so that is effectively made though usually we would see a close under the 30 level and we’ll most likely see one here as well.

In terms of the stats I was looking at on Friday for series of bearish reversal candles the minimum requirement of a 1.65% decline was met yesterday with move of 1.665% from the all time high into yesterday’s low. Of the nine examples that I listed, two reversed back up to retest the high after that decline, of which one continued the previous uptrend, and the other made a marginal new high before a 9.83% decline from that second high. Six continued down without a retest of the high to a median decline of 4.5% to 5% from the high, and an average (mean) decline of 15%. The odds therefore favor continuation down without a retest by three to one. We shall see how far the bulls can rally today.

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That’s Not Funny – That’s Slick!

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I start today with the same feeling that I had twenty-four hours ago: delight that crude oil continues to break down. My energy shorts, and most particularly my large Russian short (by way of RSX) require crude sinkage in order to thrive.

I’m most particularly pleased how “classic” crude has been behaving from a charting perspective. (I’ve been harping on this over at Slope Plus a lot). The shooting star, circled below, was a pitch-perfect reversal signal, as was the repulsion from the converging trendlines (tinted).

0527-crude