Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Is A New Bear Market Already Underway?

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Only time will tell whether or not the current bull market is just taking a breather or has already exhaled its final breath. With the recent 50/20-day ema death crosses as well as both long-term & short-term trendline breaks (in addition to other recent bearish technical developments), it would appear that, at the very least, the markets are at a critical technical juncture at this time. (Note from Tim: this post is outstanding and timely; click on any of the thumbnails for a much bigger graph):

If and when all key US equity indices are clearly trading below their respective primary bull market uptrend lines shown on these weekly charts, the next major sell signal will come on a bearish crossover of the 43/17-week ema pair (on not one, but all major US stock indices).

The 43/17-week ema pair can be found in the upper-right quadrant of the first two charts below. The 50/20-day ema pair has done a fair job of defining the intermediate-term trend historically and can be found in the lower-left quadrant of the first two charts. The histograms at the bottom of each chart provide a visual representation of whether the faster ema in the pair is trading above or below the slower ema, and by how much.

Run, Charlie!

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As some of you have probably already read in Tyler-ville, the corrupt Chinese government is so desperate to prop up the illusion of Asian prosperity that they’ve taken to threatening short sellers with arrest. Here’s the official announcement, hilariously translated by Google:


Proving once again, as I’ve said before, that equity bulls are the welfare queens of capitalism. A bunch of whining wimps who have to rely on Big Daddy (in this case, the unscrupulous leaders of China) to bail their useless butts out of trouble. Pathetic!

And just wait………this kind of nonsense will happen in the U.S. in the coming years once the wheels start falling off. Expect your brave host and Slope to be targets. The honesty and forthrightness of bears gets them into trouble every time. And the parasitic bulls will keep bleating and whining all the way down into oblivion.

Schrodinger’s Pumpkin

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I posted a chart on twitter last night showing the falling megaphone that formed during the day and the triangle that formed and broke down near the close. What happens to a short term pattern like this overnight? Well that rather depends on where the open is the next day. If there is no gap then the pattern will often play out as though it had never been interrupted. If the market gaps away hard then the pattern becomes irrelevant.

Back in the old days you’d have to wait until the open to find out whether the pattern was a fine carriage or just a pumpkin, but nowadays the futures can tell us which is more likely and this triangle, sad to say, is going to be a pumpkin.