Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Where Will Gold Bottom? (by Mr. Wizard)

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“Gold’s going to $1000, it’s very clear from the charts.”

“Gold has to hit $800 before it finds a bottom.”

I’m here to call you on that $800 prediction, and in fact go you one better: gold is going to drop at least $400, and possibly more. No, I’m not trying to one-up all of the dire numbers various pundits have thrown out as to where the price of gold will eventually reach. Nor am I claiming that bearishness has reached a climax, and secretly hoping this is The Bottom. In fact, I don’t even believe the analysis I’m about to present is correct. So why bother to write a few hundred words about something I don’t agree with? Simply because I have been investing in gold for over 12 years, and as a prudent investor it’s vital that I consider bearish as well as bullish scenarios in my investment.

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New Up-Leg Emerging for Yield?

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During the past 3-4 weeks, my preferred scenario called for the 10-year Yield to stall at around 2.50% followed by a decline into the 2.10-2.00% support zone prior to my expectation of the emergence of a new up-leg that propels Yield to 2.90-3.00%.

That said, however, my near-term pattern work is warning me that last week’s (Jul 9) low at 2.17% followed by a sharp rally to yesterday’s high at 2.47% signifies the end of a June-July correction and the initiation of a new up-leg.

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Mille Grazie!

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Wow, the Slope saved me yesterday!

When UVXY was grinding along at lifetime lows, I thought, what the heck, I’ll give this a whirl. I had never bought this supercharged volatility ETF before.

I bought it, and it sank a little. I rolled my eyes and moved on with my day. But then it started firming up, and then profits just soared. The chart below tells the whole story. I excitedly put a message in the comments section.  Dollar and InflationBomb splashed cold water on my face. And I decided to heed their counsel, seize the easy profit, and run (the green area shows approximately my holding area). I was nervous Greece might surprise us (HA HA HA!) but figured better safe than sorry.

0715-mille

You can, umm, kind of see what happened afterward. “Widow Maker” indeed.

Some people think the comments section can be noise, or even deleterious, to good trading. I personally like to hear what other people have to say, and once in a blue moon, I actually get it through my thick skull to listen! Thanks, guys.

Inflection Point Test

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On Tuesday last week I put forward a favored scenario for a strong rally that would make a high in the 2115-20 area. The following day I noted the strong daily buy signal that had fixed, and on the Thursday I called the double bottom with a target at 2123. Looking at ES that 2123 target may be made at or near the open today.

Quite a few of you will have read those posts as SPX was testing the 2040s, and those of you that didn’t think that I was having bullish delusions most likely thought that was a credible bearish scenario. Fast forward to today and almost everyone is seeing this as a bullish breakout that will likely result in new highs. That was always a possibility of course, but has anything actually changed in the interim apart from the big rally that I predicted having now happened? I drew the arrows on the daily chart below on Wednesday last week and as you can see, SPX is pretty much where I was expecting then. SPX daily chart:

150716 SPX Daily Patterns BBs MAs

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