Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Where Will Gold Bottom? (by Mr. Wizard)

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“Gold’s going to $1000, it’s very clear from the charts.”

“Gold has to hit $800 before it finds a bottom.”

I’m here to call you on that $800 prediction, and in fact go you one better: gold is going to drop at least $400, and possibly more. No, I’m not trying to one-up all of the dire numbers various pundits have thrown out as to where the price of gold will eventually reach. Nor am I claiming that bearishness has reached a climax, and secretly hoping this is The Bottom. In fact, I don’t even believe the analysis I’m about to present is correct. So why bother to write a few hundred words about something I don’t agree with? Simply because I have been investing in gold for over 12 years, and as a prudent investor it’s vital that I consider bearish as well as bullish scenarios in my investment.


New Up-Leg Emerging for Yield?

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During the past 3-4 weeks, my preferred scenario called for the 10-year Yield to stall at around 2.50% followed by a decline into the 2.10-2.00% support zone prior to my expectation of the emergence of a new up-leg that propels Yield to 2.90-3.00%.

That said, however, my near-term pattern work is warning me that last week’s (Jul 9) low at 2.17% followed by a sharp rally to yesterday’s high at 2.47% signifies the end of a June-July correction and the initiation of a new up-leg.


Mille Grazie!

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Wow, the Slope saved me yesterday!

When UVXY was grinding along at lifetime lows, I thought, what the heck, I’ll give this a whirl. I had never bought this supercharged volatility ETF before.

I bought it, and it sank a little. I rolled my eyes and moved on with my day. But then it started firming up, and then profits just soared. The chart below tells the whole story. I excitedly put a message in the comments section.  Dollar and InflationBomb splashed cold water on my face. And I decided to heed their counsel, seize the easy profit, and run (the green area shows approximately my holding area). I was nervous Greece might surprise us (HA HA HA!) but figured better safe than sorry.


You can, umm, kind of see what happened afterward. “Widow Maker” indeed.

Some people think the comments section can be noise, or even deleterious, to good trading. I personally like to hear what other people have to say, and once in a blue moon, I actually get it through my thick skull to listen! Thanks, guys.

Inflection Point Test

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On Tuesday last week I put forward a favored scenario for a strong rally that would make a high in the 2115-20 area. The following day I noted the strong daily buy signal that had fixed, and on the Thursday I called the double bottom with a target at 2123. Looking at ES that 2123 target may be made at or near the open today.

Quite a few of you will have read those posts as SPX was testing the 2040s, and those of you that didn’t think that I was having bullish delusions most likely thought that was a credible bearish scenario. Fast forward to today and almost everyone is seeing this as a bullish breakout that will likely result in new highs. That was always a possibility of course, but has anything actually changed in the interim apart from the big rally that I predicted having now happened? I drew the arrows on the daily chart below on Wednesday last week and as you can see, SPX is pretty much where I was expecting then. SPX daily chart:

150716 SPX Daily Patterns BBs MAs


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