Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
ES Quantitative Analysis
Hi Slopers, some quantitative analysis of the e-mini S&P500 for you here, courtesy of the TK+RL team.
Yesterday the market tanked and the drop continued overnight, almost reaching our first valid support area around ~2060. The news says it’s because of the Chinese Yuan depreciation and we do not what to discuss that, but only underline the fact that we had predicted lower prices for a while, without knowing what the catalyst would have been and that is how RL works: statistical models can analyze PRICE and TIME extension and tell us where the next market turn may happen, removing the need to know why. The constant search for a reason to explain the market action exposes the investor to both the risk of wong bias and wrong analysis (technical, fundamental, astrological, you name it).
The 5DMA Three Day Rule Plays Out
I was saying on twitter last night after the bulls failed to recover to the 5DMA at the close that the 5DMA three day rule that I posted yesterday morning is a really strong stat. No stat can deliver all the time, but I haven’t actually found a fail on this one yet, though I may well find one when I look back further than 2007. At some point this stat will fail but that’s not likely to be today. SPX 5DMA chart:
