Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Hi Slopers, some quantitative analysis of the e-mini S&P500 for you here, courtesy of the TK+RL team.
Yesterday the market tanked and the drop continued overnight, almost reaching our first valid support area around ~2060. The news says it’s because of the Chinese Yuan depreciation and we do not what to discuss that, but only underline the fact that we had predicted lower prices for a while, without knowing what the catalyst would have been and that is how RL works: statistical models can analyze PRICE and TIME extension and tell us where the next market turn may happen, removing the need to know why. The constant search for a reason to explain the market action exposes the investor to both the risk of wong bias and wrong analysis (technical, fundamental, astrological, you name it).
I was saying on twitter last night after the bulls failed to recover to the 5DMA at the close that the 5DMA three day rule that I posted yesterday morning is a really strong stat. No stat can deliver all the time, but I haven’t actually found a fail on this one yet, though I may well find one when I look back further than 2007. At some point this stat will fail but that’s not likely to be today. SPX 5DMA chart: