Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Back on the 5DMA Three Day Rule

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Yesterday’s little double top failed at the 38.2% fib retrace and we saw the move up afterwards that I was looking for. In a move that was really impressively bullish SPX then powered through the 50 DMA, 50 DEMA, daily mid band, 100 DMA and triangle resistance, closing above all of them. Unless we see a reversal candle today I am working on the assumption that the triangle is now breaking up towards the 2165-95 target area, though in terms of the expected path I’d like to see a short term high in the 2110-20 area, then a retest of triangle resistance, daily mid band and the 50 hour MA in the 2090-5 area, then the main move up towards the 2165-95 target area.

As the 5 DMA has been broken again, SPX is on day three of the 5 DMA three day rule. the 5 DMA must hold as closing support today to avoid a likely retest of the 2052 low. I’m not expecting to see that though. SPX daily 5 DMA chart:

150818 SPX Daily 5DMA

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Muted Response

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Well, we all woke up to this (typically breathless) headline from ZH:

0818-china

This has led to some red tones in our own pre-market quotes, although the 0.29% drop in the ES as I’m typing this is hardly a crash of its own, of course.

The irksome thing is that the market’s irrational unpredictability is more acute than ever. Take yesterday morning for example (please!) in which it looked like it was shaping up to a nice, smooth, steady descent in equities (tinted area on the left). All was going well, and then, RIP, a huge rally based on no volume and on no news.

I’d normally be more invigorated by the miniature “top” we’ve got this morning (the tinted area on the right) except for the fresh sting I feel from yesterday’s rally. I have no ETFs of any kind, but zillions of tiny equity shorts. We’ll see……….

0818-es