Slope of Hope Blog Posts

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Dotted Arrows

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Yesterday went very well for bulls on the surface, with a retest of the daily middle band and broken triangle resistance that held very well and closed above both. On the shorter term charts though a rising wedge from 2052 confirmed the wedge support trendline, and then broke down and retested in the afternoon. These patterns break down 69% of the time and after a break like this, assuming it didn’t then break up (31% option), then I’d be looking for a double top or H&S to form then either a 38.2% to 61.8% fib retrace (continuation wedge option) or a full retracement of the wedge (reversal wedge option).

I posted the double top option on twitter last night. On this scenario I’d be looking for a retest of yesterday’s high, and then a retracement to the 38.2% fib retrace in the 2084 area. SPX 5min chart (DT scenario):

150818-C SPX 5min Rising Wedge