Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Just Wow

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Well this has certainly been an impressive move. I wrote a post yesterday looking at the stats for daily and weekly 3SD (three standard deviations from 20 period MA) punches, and the last time that a weekly punch through the 3SD lower band like the one we saw on Friday was at the collapse of France before the German attack in May 1940. If we close down hard today then this decline will, in this respect, have done what the declines in 2000 (Tech crash), 1998 (Russian crisis and LCTM failure), 1997 (Asian crisis), 1994 (bonds crash), 1987 (no clarification required I hope), and others all failed to manage. You can see that post here.

That said, we are a long way from today’s close and on the four equivalent punch closes through the 3SD daily lower band, three of those went lower the next day, with AM declines of 1.8% (equiv to 1934), 2.5% (equiv to 1920) and 3.7% (equiv to 1897). All four closed up with rises ranging between 3.2% and 5%.

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Good God Almighty

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I haven’t slept this poorly since last October, when that pinhead Kuroda (however it’s spelled; I’m not going to even bother checking) launched Japanese QE, measured in trillions, to prop up their doomed economy a little while longer.

After nearly seven miserable years of waiting, the bear market is roaring back with a vengeance. My 55 shorts are ready to sprint out of the gate, whereas my five longs are staring at me like pathetic, unloved whelps. How I wish I could beam back to Friday morning and tell the Tim from back then to cover nothing and buy nothing.

The bears could really use a stick-save from Yellen right about now. Do that jaw-boning you do so well, you ancient little troll! We need your fresh-baked-oatmeal-cookie magic!

0823-cramer