I realize that we’re all getting a bit weary of hearing about Dennis Gartman, his picks, and his fade-worthiness. I heard something, however, which compels me to offer up this post about what he said today on CNBC. The entire clip is here, but the important stuff is beneath it:
To save you a bit of time, the truth of the matter is that the middle of last week, Gartman was proudly, firmly, and joyously bullish crude oil. I took note of this, because I have many energy shorts, and let’s just say when Gartman says something, I take notice.
Today, when oil started collapsing, I wondered to myself how long he would stick with his bullish position. Little did I know (since I don’t ever watch CNBC), at the very moment crude was hitting its bottom for the day, Gartman was completely back-pedaling and, from what I can tell, exercising more than a bit of revisionism. To that point, from the above video:
At about 0:48, Gartman says of recent action in the oil market:
“……...that was enough to put a top in the market for a while.”
At this point Melissa Lee makes the following WTF face:
and, to her everlasting credit, says the following words:
“Dennis, I’m confused. Last week you came on the show and said you were never more bullish about oil. So what has changed in the span of a few days”
At which point Gartman makes his own face (and I imagine what’s going through his mind is something along the lines of ‘oh, crap…..”):
and utters the following:
“I think I said about a month and a half ago I had never been so bullish on oil, and the market was still going higher, not a question about it, but all of a sudden, over the weekend, I started thinking where we were at WTI. …..there are so many holes in the ground that have been put in the ground.”
Now let’s pause here and figure out how long ago it was that Gartman declared himself the “most bullish he’s ever been on crude”. Truth to tell, I didn’t have to look long, because it wasn’t “a month and a half ago” (which, conveniently, would have been an ingenious call), but, in fact, only three trading days ago :
So, if the man wasn’t sporting that beard of his, we could call this a bald-faced lie. Apparently the revelation he had about oil’s true direction took place over the weekend when he “started thinking”.
Of course, the man is there to offer up actionable investment advice, so at 1:55, he states of crude oil’s price action:
“At $55, things get a little bit sporty“
So you’ve got that working in your favor: if, by chance, oil manages to get to $55, you’ll recognize it as “sporty” and can trade accordingly.
Melissa tries to save the poor man from any more embarrassment so, at 2:25, she speculates:
“So you’ll probably be on the sidelines for a long time in oil.”
Gartman’s response is one of hemming and hawing, but he wraps things up with this knee-slapper at 2:55:
“All right, it had been a nice run from $38 up to $50, that’s a pretty sizable move, I’ll go to the sidelines.”
The very strong implication, of course, being that when crude bottomed at $38, he stood on the rooftops and shouted out that it was time to buy, and that at $50 (or at least, over the weekend, when he started thinking “all of a sudden”) he exited, having captured virtually the entire move.
So, there you have it. And in case there’s any doubt as to how long ago it was that Gartman went full-blown bull on oil (a position sustained for hours upon hours), here is the clip from just a few days ago:
And, if nothing else, remember two things: (1) there are so many holes in the ground that have been put in the ground (2) as Dennis himself declares at the end of the second clip, “It’s always good to be seen”, so if you want to be seen regularly on the world’s best-known financial network, just keep in mind it helps to have a close family member in the business.