As sentimental a soul as I am, I still tend to throw out just about everything. My parents are not like this, and they recently sent me a box full of cards, letters, and other memorabilia from my life. Below is a letter I sent to them over 30 years ago, and I wanted to highlight that, as much as the world has changed, Tim is as constant as the Northern Star. (more…)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Something Wicked This Way Comes (by Bob Kudla)
The Junk Bond Market topped in 2011, Commodities, as well, the Real Estate Market Topped in 2014, the Stock Market topped in 2015, and now we are seeing gold, U.S. bonds, and the dollar starting to positively correlate.
It is time to revisit with Mr. Exeter. He created a risk pyramid, that shows how investors cascade down from high risk to no risk assets as aversion and default gains steam.
The Empty Burrito
I made the round trip between the Bay Area and the Los Angeles area over the weekend. On the way back, the family and I stopped at Chipotle (not a typical choice, but it was the only decent thing to eat). We were used to waiting in a long line, particularly on a Sunday evening when there was a lot of traffic. Allow me to show you the line we faced:
Swing Trading MAT BEN M ASB MA
Some More Upside Likely
SPX failed to get back to 1990 by the January close, so I’m calling this year for the bears on my first three days of January stat. I outlined this setup on 7th January and you can see that post here. Of the six years in the last 43 years where this stat has fixed at the end of January the best two performers were up 3% and 1%, last year was marginally red, and the remaining three were down 10%, 11% and 39% (2008) respectively. The odds are against anything better than a flat close this year.
In the short term ES has broken up from an ascending triangle and I’m expecting broken resistance at 1912 ES (~1917/8 SPX) to be retested this morning. That might not happen as it has already been retested overnight, but we’ll see. The full triangle target is in the 2020 area, but these are bad at making target and Bulkowski recommends using a target at 61% of the full target. That would put this target in the 1978 area, which may well still be overambitious. ES Mar 60min chart:
