Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
It has been ten weeks since the market bottomed on February 11th. To me, it feels like ten years. It’s been a grueling, awful grind, but it didn’t get really beyond-belief miserable until March 17th, when Yellen went uber-dovish and patterns and trendlines started getting smashed like turkeys being thrown from helicopters.
As I sit here now, the last decent down day we had was back on April 7th, and otherwise the market is just grinding higher and higher, in many cases making highs never seen before in human history. I really thought we were done with all this; that, as I put it, “the wind was at our backs.” Well, the central banks learned their lesson in 2008, and they’re not just going to roll over and let market forces take control. No way, no how.
Anyone remember this from ZeroHedge back on March 17th?
For the one or two people out there who still believe that it is physically possible for equity prices to move lower, I humbly offer below the symbol DXJ, which is the fund that combines Japanese equities with a hedged Yen bet. To my eyes, this head and shoulders top looks like it has retraced to an appealing risk/reward ratio.
Yesterday’s low at 2091/2 SPX (2085 ES) was retested overnight in globex and held. Unless that fails first today the obvious next target above is in the 2114/5 area at trendline resistance. That is supported by the intersection of two resistance trendlines on ES there as well, and if hit that will be a possible top for this move up from the February low, something I would call a candidate high. Ideally we’d test that today and there would be a clear reversal there, ideally into a red close for the day. SPX 60min chart: