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Long Goldman Sachs (GS)
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I’ve written about the huge head and shoulders top on DXJ many times, most recently with my Japan’s Dandruff post. It’s good to see that, at long last, the pattern is beginning to assert itself. If only the same could be said for our own captured, pointless equity markets here at home.
That was a very nasty bull trap last night. As the markets closed yesterday the IHS that I was looking at on ES yesterday morning had completed and broken up and SPX closed back above the 50 hour MA. I did note on the ES chart below that I did for theartofchart.net chart service subscribers last night that the breaks needed to survive the night, and they didn’t do that, with ES invalidating the IHS and making a new retracement low in globex.
So what now? Well that was a failure at resistance and next up is to see whether SPX and ES can break support. The globex low was at a test of the daily middle band on ES and I’m expecting to see a test of the daily middle band on SPX in trading hours today. Support on SPX is very clear, with a possible sloping H&S neckline in the 2078 area, the current retracement low at 2077, and the daily middle band at 2075. If SPX can sustain a break below these then the H&S target is in the 2040 area, the daily lower band is in the 2035 area, and I have possible larger H&S necklines in the 2030 and 2020 areas that I’d be watching for possible support. SPX daily chart: (more…)