As a new month begins, the standouts continue to be precious metals. Gold and silver have been so much more consistent than bonds, equities, volatility, or just about any other financial instrument, that it’s no surprise sentiment is so strong.

I’m more focused on crude oil, which has taken on a role every bit as powerful as central banks in determining confidence in equities. It’s been steadily uptrending for months now, making the tinted series of higher lows, but watch that red line I’ve drawn. Crack that, and you could have a trend reversal on your hands.