Well I was doubtful about the bears holding it in yesterday but they did. None of SPX, RUT or NDX managed a bullish break and there are now very decent topping setups here on all three to deliver a solid retracement of the move up from last week’s low, if resistance can hold again today.
Lately an expectation that the bears would show up to work sober two days running has been overoptimistic, and if this was a bull setup I’d be calling 80% odds that this setup would deliver, but this is the bears, and the NFP numbers may make the decision before the open, so I’m giving 60/40 odds in favor of the bears that this topping setup plays out, with the note that on a break up we would likely see SPX test the all time high at 2134 in the near future.