Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Gaping Maw

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Even though the S&P 500 hit (on an intraday basis) the highest level in the history of the universe today – – – higher than the Internet bubble, higher than the financial crisis – – more overvalued than any time in the history of the financial markets – – my portfolio of entirely short positions is, for the most part, profitable.

How could this be? Well, for one thing, I’ve got a pretty good concentration of energy shorts. I wanted to illustrate just how detached the market in general has become from energy. The chart below overlays the SPY (in blue) with the XLE energy fund (in black). I wanted to illustrate “tight” and “loose” and was delighted that Ms. Sherilyn Fenn and Ms. Hillary Clinton were available to offer their services for this purpose. Thanks, ladies.


So as you can on Sherilyn’s side, the markets were extremely tightly coupled. Recently, however, if you can stomach looking at the right side of the chart, you’ll see an absolute chasm of difference between the two.

My fervent desire, of course, is for the overall universe of stocks to “catch down” with oil and related companies.

Misplaced Enthusiasm

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I was chatting to a trader friend at the end of last week and he was telling me that many were now looking for a major bull breakout on SPX from here, and I think I’ll show in my post today one strong reason to think that’s very unlikely to happen. That reason is based on what has been happening at the weekly upper band over the last three weeks, which historically has been a very solid indicator that short term upside is limited and that a minimum 4%+ retracement is close. (more…)