Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Textbook Set Up in the Metals Complex

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by Avi Gilburt,

First published Sat Aug 6 for members of  Last weekend, I prepared you for the potential set up for the 3rd wave to much higher levels in the metals complex.  More specifically, I provided you with a map as to how the 3rd wave set up would look on the GDX, should the market comply by filling in our 8 minute chart as outlined:

As long as we do not break below that support, and ideally remain over the 1.00 extension at 29.87, then I will be looking to complete 5 waves up off the recent low, which I would classify as wave (i) of wave 3 of iii.  That suggests that after a corrective wave (ii) pullback is seen, and we then break out over the top of wave (i), the market is well on its way into the heart of its 3rd wave, and targeting the 39-41 region next.

And, over the last week, the market has complied in almost textbook fashion.  In fact, once we completed 5 waves up into the top of our wave (i) target region, I sent out an Alert with a target box for a wave (ii).  On Friday, the market dropped right to the top of our target box.

While the micro count in the c-wave does not look quite complete, it would seem that the market could still see lower before this c-wave bottoms. But, as long as the GDX remains over 29, I am viewing this chart as being on the cusp of the heart of a 3rd wave break out, which is pointing to 39-41, and quite quickly.

Now, for those who will read my words and consider leveraging up to the hilt in an irresponsible manner, I want to interject reasons one should still maintain your standard risk management practices.  Set ups such as these are estimated to be about 70% probability.  That still means there is a 30% probability that it could fail.  One of the reasons this set up could fail is because all retracements in the GDX chart have been VERY shallow.  This forces an analyst such as myself to make certain educated assumptions about where 2nd waves in the structure are located (since they are otherwise deeper retracements), which can have an effect upon the overall wave count if even one of those assumptions is wrong.


Grinding Higher

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I was looking for a test of short term rising support on SPX yesterday, and that target wasn’t hit, but it was hit on both the NDX and RUT charts. I’m therefore watching the NDX and RUT charts for the short term support trendlines and have added those charts below the SPX 15min chart.

SPX and NDX have made marginal new swing highs this morning. A new ATH made on SPX and inching a little closer to the 200 high retest on NDX. Short term divergence is suggesting retracement here, and if those support trendlines on NDX and RUT break then we may well see a larger retracement. The tape remains very muted however and as Stan was saying in Chart Chat on Sunday, the centre of the next high window is on 22nd August, so we may well see a slow grinding top form before the likely 4%+ retracement begins. You can see the recording of Sunday’s Chart Chat on this page here. SPX 15min chart:

160809 SPX 15min


Nurse Ratchet

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Comment cleaner time, with a “gosh, not much happening” post. The only observation I’ll make about the ES below is that the jobs report seems to have ratcheted the price of the ES from a “pretty much 2165 or so” level up to a “pretty much 2175 or so” level. It certainly seems the market is content to pin a value based on big news and and then leave it there, allowing the VIX is sink closer and closer to the single digits.