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This is the opening segment to this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 421, a 48 page work-through of the immediate post-Trump landscape. While we had fun with the Trump hysteria throughout an ultimately serious analytical report, I look forward to marinating in the post-hysteria atmosphere and coming up with well defined market directions, whether they be born of new macro fundamentals to be, or contrary sentiment driven possibilities, which are also in play…
People who have read me for years know that all sorts of buzz phrases (Inflation onDemand, Armageddon ’08, etc.) and some off color writing can find their way into my work, especially when writing publicly. I do not think highly of the Federal Reserve system, the average politician or even many US Presidents through my lifetime. Formally, I do respect the office and ultimately by extension, even a President I may not happen to like. It’s been that way much more often than not, after all.
I was pleased to see no less a publication than Barron’s featured House Safari in this week’s issue. Here’s a link to a free download of my product. (Note: what is shown below is an image; clicking the links won’t work).
There were two back to back volume spikes on the daily SPX chart last week and I’m looking for that significant high. We could see it here but unless SPX can break down through the 2154 (2150 ES) area support that held on Friday the short term pattern setup favors a retest of the current rally high in what might then be the second high of a small double top: SPX daily chart:
Well, I know I’m not the only one who is glad the election is over. Truth be told, as glad as I am to see price moving around again after this summer’s lethargy, I have my fingers crossed that volatility dials it back a little from here because it’s a bit too much for me. BUT, after just one week, conditions have changed considerably so a quick review is in order.
Coming into Election Day, there was a significant amount of hedging going into the uncertainty of Nov 8th was evident by the high SKEW readings and Equity Put/Call ratios. Since then, the SKEW has returned to mid-levels and Equity Put/Call is not far behind.