Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

2016: A Year for Contrarians; 2017 Shaping Up That Way as Well

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alice2016 was the year I finally decided to codify my niche as a psychology-focused market contrarian, putting the Alice, Red Queen and Rabbit components of NFTRH’s logo right there on my inner forearm, forever.

This is because I love the imagery and themes of NFTRH’s guiding metaphorical story, Alice in Wonderland, and because the weird technical tools I use are generally in service to one thing; being right when the herds are going the wrong way. The concept originally came to me as the markets were beginning their descent into the crash of 2008 as the newly launched market management service needed a view that was apart from the emotional herds then preparing to go down the drain. Alice’s quote (Lewis Carroll), a portion of which occupies my other inner forearm was perfect in this regard…

“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?”


Low Volume Yawnfest?

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The tape has been impressively dull, particularly in the afternoons, but everything is still on track, just moving really slowly.

ES has established good support at the weekly pivot at 2260 and the next obvious move is a retest of the high. If that doesn’t happen in the first 90 minutes today though then locating a buyer and a seller to keep the tape moving might be a problem, judging from yesterday’s action at least. The ATH is only six handles away at the time of writing, but on the tape we saw yesterday I’d describe that as deceptively close. ES Mar 60min chart:

161228 AM ES Mar 60min


Morning Metal Smackdown

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Over the past couple of weeks, poor old gold has been trying to get up off the mat. It’s actually meeting with a bit of subtle success (see green tints), as a series of higher lows is being formed. Its more vital attempts to get higher, particularly overnight, keep getting smacked down (red arrows), as $1145 seems to be an important barrier. Considering how much is going against gold right now, it’s behaving decently, and I’m certainly keeping my fingers crossed that it can find the buying power to hurdle over that 1145 line, which should make its recovery easier.