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10-Year Yield Transitioning Out of Multi-Year Bear Market

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My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on 10-year US Treasury yield argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35-year bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year bull market (dominant uptrend).

From 1981, when 10-year yield peaked at 15.84% amid concerns about rampant, uncontainable inflation and stagnant growth (“stagflation”) precipitated initially by the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, benchmark yield steadily and relentlessly declined to a post-financial-crisis 2016 low at 1.32% (see Charts 1 and 2).

From a technical perspective, I can make the case that all of the action in yield from mid-2011 into early 2017—a 5-1/2 year period– represents a major base formation at the conclusion of a generational yield bear market (see shaded area on Chart 1). That said, to confirm the end of the 5-1/2 year transition from bear to bull market, yield must climb and sustain above significant resistance lodged between 2.75% and 3.30%. Yield currently is circling 2.50%.