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Knife Fight For Direction

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Even if SPX resolves up here, and I’m leaning slightly towards that, the bears have impressed so far this week just by putting up an impressive fight on two consecutive days with very strong historical stats. As a general rule bears are barely noticeable as roadkill on days like these, so regardless of the outcome that is a show of some strength.

However to win this particular battle bears need to convert first the 50 hour MA and then the weekly pivot on ES, and that’s not happened so far at least. The longer that support holds the more dip buyers will be encouraged.

On SPX a triangle is forming that would lean 70% bearish, but at the moment that is trying to break up. Key resistance above is at the open gap at Friday’s close at 2368.06. That is a possible breakaway gap down until it is filled. SPX 60min chart:

170404 SPX 60min