Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
A week ago I commented on my SPX hourly chart that the obvious target for this move was falling channel resistance and SPX finally hit that at the high yesterday. After the confused mess of the last five days of trading that at last gives a clear setup here.
This falling channel is a likely bull flag which on a break up would have a minimum target at a retest of the all time high. The rising wedge from the March low has already retraced over 38.2% of the wedge so SPX could break up now into that retest. The open 60min buy signal likes that option and arguably so does the falling megaphone that has formed on the RSI 14 over the last few days. On the other hand a reversal here could well still reach the ideal 50% retracement target at 2405 that I gave at the end of July. Channel support is now in the 2395 area and a little low for that but there are a couple of alternate falling wedge support trendline options that could deliver a low close to that number. (more…)
An analysis of Amazon (AMZN)’s charts on Monday identified a near-term potentially bullish formation juxtaposed against a tricky, potentially dangerous intermediate-term set up.
From a near-term perspective, AMZN on its hourly chart appeared to be putting in a “falling wedge”-type pattern (the opposite of a rising wedge), which usually represents a trend-ending formation. In this case, it would be the conclusion of the correction off of the July 27 high at 1083.20 to Monday’s low at 942.25.
Often times, the end of the falling wedge will come in the form of one final down-spike beneath the lower wedge boundary line, into marginal new reaction low territory, say beneath 940, into the 936 area, followed by a vicious upside reversal spike and the initiation of a powerful rally that will propel AMZN above 953-960 resistance to confirm the turn. From a near-term perspective then, AMZN should be getting ready for a tradable upmove. (more…)
Today can be summed up in one image:
The price of Gasoline RBOB Futures is coming to a head in this large triangle formation, as shown on the following Monthly chart.
Watch for a breakout and hold above its apex around the 1.6445 level, together with a new swing high on the Momentum indicator, to confirm sustainable bullish sentiment.
Even though the “end of the world selloff” ended almost instantly this morning, I’m having a good day. I’m up 1.8% on my regular portfolio and about 3% on my ETF portfolio, in spite of being completely short (the one exception being my NUGT long, which I closed promptly this morning). The SPY is key at this point, with the breakout level highlighted in cyan and the failure point (the one I’m rooting for……..) in yellow.
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) approaching all time high at 160 which if broken could accelerate prices toward 163 in the short term period.
It looks like a a massive reverse Head & Shoulders formation could play out nicely if GOLD can break and hold above its neckline (and converging 40% Fibonacci retracement level) around 1376, as shown on the Monthly chart below.
Longer term, we could see an eventual run up to converging major price and 60% Fib retracement resistance around 1600. Watch for, not only a continuing rise on the Momentum indicator, but also an increase in its velocity, should we see such a sustained neckline breakout, as confirmation of bullish commitment.
I don’t think there’s ever been a single stock I’ve suggested as a short more than Finish Line (symbol FINL). My poor tastytrade viewers probably got sick to death of hearing about it, but it’s one of the most amazing topping patterns I’ve ever seen, and given how far it’s fallen, I doubt anyone’s bitching about my frequent mentionings of it.
One problem I’ve had as a trader is covering shorts too soon. One great example is Chicago Bridge & Iron, which I yammered on about endlessly as well. It did indeed fall hard, and I took my profits. The problem is……….it won’t stop falling.
As I wrote to my PLUS members on August 24th regarding junior miners, “..…as I look at the miners, I’m seeing signs of life. If you believe the breakout is meaningful and want to amp up your commitment, a good way to do it would by via the triple-bullish ETF symbol below, which itself has had a clean breakout from a rather long downtrend.”
Well, it didn’t take long for this to blossom, as gold has broken out smartly………