This is mostly a comment cleaner. It’s just past 8, and I’m going to BED like an old man, because tomorrow is going to be an epic battle. Good night and good luck.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
You think I’d be happy.
After all, days like Friday and Monday come along, oh, just about never. We have, in almost no time., seen bullish hubris hit with a flamethrower (perhaps even supplied by Mr. Musk). We have seen our smug bull friends have their accounts decimated (quite literally). And as for the White House, not only has it stopped tweeting about market highs, it issued some lame-ass little statement about how the fundamental economy was still strong and everything was going to be just peachy. Don’t you worry your fuzzy little heads.
All the same, I feel kind of lousy. it comes from three places, I suppose. (more…)
Looking back at a longer-term monthly view of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) compared with GOLD (GC) (blue bars) and WTIC Crude Oil (CL) (pink bars), we saw a broad correlation among these regarding rallies and pullbacks…until 2011 when the bounce in GC and CL stalled and, ultimately, sank in mid-2014, especially CL when it plunged to (just below) post-financial crisis levels in January of 2016.
As I write this post at 11:50am ET on Friday, we see that, while the SPX is just below all-time highs, GC faces major resistance at 1350, and CL is swirling around 65.00 (major resistance/support). (more…)
I was looking for a decline of more than 5% from the high on SPX to signal that the market was normalising into a more two way trading environment, and that has been hit today, and then some. On the video below I was noting the large amount of positive divergence on various charts and liking the odds for a rally that has not yet materialised, with SPX punching 1% below the daily lower band at the LOD so far.
This is impressive stuff, and the advances/declines level today is suggesting that we may see a repeat of Friday afternoon with a close at or near the low. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
After careful consideration, I have decided selling my XLI puts early today was an error. Heh.
In any event, I’m still heavily short, and my departure from bond puts on Friday DID make sense. What we are witnessing is extraordinary. Congratulations to my beloved Slopers, many of whom I suspect are having superb days. We richly deserve this.
Another U.S. government shutdown looms this week on February 9th.
Will it…won’t it? That’s the $64,000 question as more volatility is in store for markets.
Given the fact that there are great political divides over a variety of policies, increased volatility in the markets, and, now, the information that’s being revealed that may determine whether or not civil and/or constitutional rights were violated in the months leading up to and after the 2016 presidential election (and any political and/or legal fallout that may occur), will only add to the increased odds of chaos ahead, making future events less predictable. (more…)
As the outset, I’ll say I think oil is heading much lower, but for the moment, it seems energy stocks are………dare I use the word?………..oversold. I at least wanted to point out this mildly-interesting chart of the triple-bullish ETF symbol ERX, which is nestled on a supporting trendline.
As for my portfolio in general, the jury is still out about whether my lightening up this morning was wise or foolish. I remain short at about 100% of my portfolio’s value, but the difference is that I came into the day 200% short.
On January 23 of this year two new 3x leveraged ETNs were launched, comprised of FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, BABA, BIDU, NVDA, TSLA & TWTR, and their descriptions are as follows…
- FNGU is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x the daily price movements of an index of US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies. The index is highly concentrated and equally weighted.
- FNGD is an exchange traded note that tracks 3x inverse the daily price movements of an index of high concentrated and equally weighted US-listed technology and consumer discretionary companies. The note uses derivatives to achieve its -3 exposure.
They are both highly risky investments and are very thinly traded.
Well, my physical maladies have me awake again when I should be sleeping, so I’ll just use this opportunity to do a comment cleaner. Glancing at the markets, I see the bitcoin is getting slaughtered again (in spite of fuzzy-haired crypto geniuses telling you they will make you rich), and equity markets have made the feeblest of “bounces”, already reversing.
I see that charlatan investment advisors are already sending out spam saying that Friday’s rout is “a storm in a teacup” (they can’t even manage to get the metaphor correct). I suspect this sentiment is going to last a very long time, considering the deep conditioning investors have received over the past nine years.
In a way, whether it bounces or not doesn’t really matter to me, because my macro play is much larger than any short-term bounce. The only thing that makes me sad about all this red is that the nimrods in D.C. are going to try to stop it at some point. I’d be totally OK with indexes price using negative numbers.