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As of today – March 29, 2018 – Slope is a teenager.
Yes, thirteen years ago, at the prodding of a family member, I wrote my first blog post. In those days, I thought of blogs the same way I think of cryptocurrencies today – – as a fad with far too much media attention. Although I had sold my company, Prophet, just weeks earlier, I had resisted the nudges to start writing a blog in my free time, but I finally gave in. I’m glad I did.
Since this is, by definition, the thirteenth time I’ve written a “birthday” post, I was trying to think of something engaging or clever to write. I confess, I’m a bit stumped. In last year’s post, I already referenced some of the things I was considering here, such as Patton Oswalt’s birthday routine, so it’s clear I’m exhibiting a sign of age by way of repeating myself. (more…)
As we gasp and wheeze toward the end of the quarter (well, at least that’s what I’ve been doing, having been sick it seems most of the year!) I thought we’d take a moment to look at a very simple that. That is, the moving averages (without anything else) of the S&P 500 cash index. Here it is below, with the 50, 100, and 200 day exponential moving averages.
I want to begin this post by again noting publicly that feel like I clowned myself yesterday in my own trading and in my lack of attention to the market at a critical point (couldn’t really be helped, but it’s the results that matter). Despite a market doing generally as expected, I was not really prepared. My macro views often prove right on while my own execution can shall we say, vary. It’s why I tell NFTRH subscribers or anyone considering the service it is best to follow the analysis, not what some faulty trader is doing at any given time.
The reason for the paragraph above is balance for the paragraphs below, in which we drive home once again the folly of listening to experts (at least the experts the media shove in your face at ill-timed junctures). I had a subscriber leave NFTRH in mid-2016 (he’s back and we’ve had a friendly review of that situation) in part because I was doggedly bearish gold and bullish the Semiconductors, which was exactly opposite to the stance of a technology expert, whose service he also subscribed to. It made me sad (for both of us) to have stuck to my convictions, but lost a subscriber while turning out to be right in my view. (more…)
Well, the big international news is that China has announced North Korea is going to denuclearize. Which is sort of like Elizabeth Holmes announcing that Bill Clinton won’t cheat on his ravishing wife anymore. Two of the least trustworthy countries on the planet making an announcement………..meh, I don’t buy it.
As such, the market doesn’t care either, and it’s shaping up to be an interesting conclusion to an amazing quarter (tomorrow is the last trading day of Q1 2018). If the ES can snap 2600, we could be in for a dynamic day.
After the huge run-up on Monday, I was deathly concerned that we were in for another month-long grind higher, just like we experienced from February 9th to March 9th. Tuesday’s tumble helped lay that concern to rest.
Let’s just take another look at some big indexes and what they tell us. Let’s first examine the Dow Jones Composite.