Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

Thirteen Inglorious Years

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As of today – March 29, 2018 – Slope is a teenager.

Yes, thirteen years ago, at the prodding of a family member, I wrote my first blog post. In those days, I thought of blogs the same way I think of cryptocurrencies today – – as a fad with far too much media attention. Although I had sold my company, Prophet, just weeks earlier, I had resisted the nudges to start writing a blog in my free time, but I finally gave in. I’m glad I did.

Since this is, by definition, the thirteenth time I’ve written a “birthday” post, I was trying to think of something engaging or clever to write. I confess, I’m a bit stumped. In last year’s post, I already referenced some of the things I was considering here, such as Patton Oswalt’s birthday routine, so it’s clear I’m exhibiting a sign of age by way of repeating myself. (more…)

Media Leaders and Laggards

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You can see, at a glance (monthly charts below of FOXACMCSA and TWX), which media giants are leading or lagging each other overall…they are all at or below their respective major resistance levels.

The only one whose momentum indicator is above zero on this long-term timeframe is FOXA…if it plunges and falls below zero, no doubt the others will weaken further.

On the flip side, if FOXA breaks and holds above its prior swing high of 39.27, the others may gather strength, as well. (more…)

Experts as Contrary Indicators (Bonds Edition)

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I want togross2 begin this post by again noting publicly that feel like I clowned myself yesterday in my own trading and in my lack of attention to the market at a critical point (couldn’t really be helped, but it’s the results that matter). Despite a market doing generally as expected, I was not really prepared. My macro views often prove right on while my own execution can shall we say, vary. It’s why I tell NFTRH subscribers or anyone considering the service it is best to follow the analysis, not what some faulty trader is doing at any given time.

The reason for the paragraph above is balance for the paragraphs below, in which we drive home once again the folly of listening to experts (at least the experts the media shove in your face at ill-timed junctures). I had a subscriber leave NFTRH in mid-2016 (he’s back and we’ve had a friendly review of that situation) in part because I was doggedly bearish gold and bullish the Semiconductors, which was exactly opposite to the stance of a technology expert, whose service he also subscribed to. It made me sad (for both of us) to have stuck to my convictions, but lost a subscriber while turning out to be right in my view. (more…)

The Market Shrugs

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Well, the big international news is that China has announced North Korea is going to denuclearize. Which is sort of like Elizabeth Holmes announcing that Bill Clinton won’t cheat on his ravishing wife anymore. Two of the least trustworthy countries on the planet making an announcement………..meh, I don’t buy it.

As such, the market doesn’t care either, and it’s shaping up to be an interesting conclusion to an amazing quarter (tomorrow is the last trading day of Q1 2018). If the ES can snap 2600, we could be in for a dynamic day.

intraday (more…)