Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

That’s the Breaks

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The shift from bullish to bearish since January 26th has been delightfully insidious. Today’s market action (that is, Monday the 2nd of April) created some more progress for the bears, although the breaks of February 9th lows were not across the board. Indeed, looking at some of the big indexes, you can see that we’re getting to the point of “challenging” those important lows, but not yet piercing them:

slopechart_$SPX (more…)

S&P 500 Index Over-Extended on a Fibonacci Basis

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The following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) simply shows the monthly closes from its inception.

January’s (2018) close of 2823.81 nearly tagged its long-term 140% trend-based Fibonacci extension level of 2836.

As of 2:03 pm ET today (Monday), its price is currently below its 1.27% Fibonacci extension level of 2625.

Failure to recapture and hold 2625 could see price eventually decline further to 2220 (its 1% Fib extension level), or lower to around 2100, due to a lack of major price consolidation support below its current price until then. (more…)

Tesla’s Worst Month May Not Be Its Last

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March was Tesla’s (TSLA) worst-performing month since its IPO in June 2010, as shown on the following monthly chart. It may not be its last.

The March candle closed just above a medium-term 50% Fibonacci retracement level and below a long-term -50% Andrew’s Pitchfork channel line.

We may see price decline further to the bottom of the pitchfork where it converges with the 60% Fib level at 236.00. Inasmuch as the momentum indicator has made an all-time swing low and is diverging with the overall price uptrend, it is hinting that further weakness lies ahead. Alternatively, major resistance sits at 300.00 (confluence of 20-month VWMA and 40% Fib level).

A break and hold below 236.00 would not bode well for this stock. (more…)

Salt in the Tea

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The Long Island Iced Tea company’s “pivot” to be all about blockchain has, shall we say, come full circle. Anything to do with cryptos has turned to dog crap. It’ll get worse, though. Because the crap is going to sit in the sun, getting mushy, attracting flies, and then someone is going to accidentally step on it with their boots. OK, I think I’ve carried this allegory far enough.


Further Volatility Ahead for FAANGs

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Amazon plunged last week after media rumours surfaced about President Trump’s intentions towards its taxation, as shown on the following daily chart of AMZN.

A hold below near-term resistance of a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1441.74 could see a retest of 1400.25 (60% Fib retracement), or lower. The dramatic plunge on the momentum indicator signals further volatility and wild price swings ahead for this stock.