Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

A Fearsome Loss!

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After the market closed today (Monday), I saw on my news feed that Verifone Systems (PAY) had agreed to be acquired at a huge premium to its closing price, about 50% higher than the market. That’s not especially interesting news to anyone that doesn’t have a position in the stock, but I do. And it’s a short position. And that, as you might guess, is not a good thing.

I am sharing this bit of bad news as an object lesson in risk management, however. Because after I found this out, I asked myself the following questions and gave myself the following answers: (more…)

Wells Fargo Struggles to Regain a Foothold

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Wells Fargo is struggling to re-enter its long-term upward-trending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel, as shown on the following monthly chart of WFC.

The momentum indicator has fallen below the zero level on this timeframe and has formed a lower swing low…hinting of further weakness ahead. And, as I mentioned in this February post, major support is at 50.00, so a break and hold below would likely see price retest the October 2016 lows, or drop lower.

* UPDATE @ closeWFC continued its intraday drop and closed near its low of the day at 52.26. (more…)

Melt-Up Media Morons

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Since the BTFD crowd and “it’s still a bull market” imbeciles were after me today, I thought this would be appropriate…………..

As we move deeper into the year 2018, and as the market slips lower, I am increasingly confident that the gargantuan bull market that started on March 6 2009 ended on January 26 2018. We all know that no one rings a bell at the top………but I think we’re all starting to hear the ringing anyway.

With that in mind, I decided to take a look backward at the kind of chatter that was going on in mainstream financial media when the market was peaking. What became quickly there clear was two “legendary” voices – – Bill Miller and Jeremy Grantham – – took center stage and encouraged people to throw all their money into an equity market that had already gone up over 300%.

Let’s start with the first “legend” – – Bill Miller – – who in January 2018 (that is, the month the market reached its highest peak in human history) notified planet Earth that the market was going to “melt up” by 30%. (more…)

As the Macro Turns…

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We began months ago, noting the 3 Amigos destined for their goals. Here’s a post from November 2017 explaining the macro fundamentals involved:

Updating the 3 Amigos of the Macro

  1. Amigo #1 (SPX vs. Gold): Either reach major theoretical resistance (it’s a ratio, after all) or abort mission by establishing a downtrend.
  2. Amigo #2 (10yr yield to 2.9% and 30yr yield to 3.3%): Destinations reached!
  3. Amigo #3 (also known as the slower, dumber Amigo, the 10yr-2yr Yield Curve): Still on his journey, flattening. The trouble would be indicated by steepening.

(more…)