Slope of Hope Blog Posts

This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index Stalls Below Resistance

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As at 6:30 pm ET tonight (April 11) the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index (ES) is trading just below a couple of intraday resistance levels, namely, 2649.51 (40% Fib retracement level) and 2660 (triangle apex), as shown on the following 60 minute (extended hours) chart. The momentum indicator is just above zero.

We’ll need to see a clear break and hold above or below this triangle, with corroborating momentum, to gauge direction and sustainability. Whether that happens by Friday is anybody’s guess at this point, particularly with the Syria issue still developing.

The Ephemeral Triangle

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NQ/NDX and RUT/TF have now both reached their respective IHS necklines and broken slightly over them, so the possible Janus bear flag setups on both are set up and ready to fail into the retests of the previous lows. ES/SPX is the only laggard, but of course there was already a strong target at the last low there. In the video below I’m saying that ES/SPX may have topped out on this move yesterday. We’ll see.

I was asked a couple of questions about a fuller explanation of Janus flags yesterday and they are a pattern of mine so they aren’t written up formally anywhere yet. I tweeted a good recent example on CL and more explanation on my twitter this morning, so you can see that there if you want. Intraday Video from – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)

Has Canada’s TSX Index Reached Its Limit…Recession Looming?

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Not much has changed with respect to price action since I wrote my last post about Canada’s TSX Index, as shown on the following monthly chart. It’s still dangling precariously outside of its long-term upward trending triangle formation, after dropping 7.22% from its record high set on January 4th. The momentum indicator is in downtrend, but remains above the zero level.


Cut and Paste Morning

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Just twenty-four hours ago, I wrote in The Arena: “Just absolute chaos, with no one the clear winner. The bulls have the ball but then BOOM! the news hits about tariffs on $100 billion in goods. The bears snatch it away but then BOOM! Mnuchin assures them it’s just a negotiation, and everything is going to be fine. Uh-oh BOOM! the offices of Michael Cohen get raided, so the bears get the ball back. And, instantly, BOOM! the head of China issues a soothing speech, allowing the bulls to take control again

And so – – we have Zuckerberg (AKA Commander Data) testimony on the left and Syria attack on the right. Welcome to the new normal.

bounce (more…)

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