Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

10-Year Yield: From A 35-Year Bear Market To A Generational Bull Market

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From Mike Paulenoff: In early March, 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years. The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor inflation data provide adequate justification for yield to be higher than it was two months ago. But there are times when the contradicting longer-term technical set-up should be heeded, even when the trend lacks strong support from lagging tabular data.

4 29 18 Monthly YIELD GIF

In scanning the past few months of U.S. economic data – such as Retail Sales, New Home Sales, Personal Spending, Consumer Prices, Non-farm Payrolls – what jumps out is the variability of the data. Most of these data series reflect a zig-zag pattern that belies a consistently strong directional economic impulse.

On April 27th, investors received their first look at the advance estimate of Q1, 2018 GDP, which came in at 2.3% compared with consensus estimates of 1.8% to 2.0%. More surprising, perhaps, was the subdued Q1 Price Index at 2.0% versus estimates of 2.4%, although the inflation gauge did remain at the Fed’s 2% target. (more…)

Two Keys

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Good morning, everyone. Well, the big week is here. If all goes as planned, we’re going to make the leap Friday night from the old Slope to the new. I’m plan to have my fire-retardant underwear on for as long as possible, because when it comes to software deployments, you never know how badly (or well…….) things might go.

For the moment, just a quick glance at two key charts. Looking at the /ES over the past couple of weeks, we had our all-too-brief drop last week, followed by an irksome recovery. The series of lower highs is still in place, but it’s quite plain to see the slope is becoming much milder. This is a huge week in earnings, of course, with AAPL the spotlight Tuesday afternoon, so that will be the real driver.

esdown (more…)

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