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The great majority of market participants believe that “the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics.” So, if I share with you “secret” news that will hit the wires next week, you should be able to make a killing with such information. Right?
While I strongly disagree with this proposition, at least based upon my in-depth study of decades of stock market history, this perspective is so engrained in the investment process of advisors and analysts alike that it is followed even more than the Bible.
Ironically, probably my best call of the entire year was the one I kept being so embarrassed about: declaring that the crude oil gap at $73.25 would be the peak of a staggering, multi-hundred percent increase in energy over a period greater than two years. Yet that is almost precisely where it flipped around, getting as high as 72.83. Since then, KABOOM, oil has been vomiting all over itself. As it melts past that magenta area I’ve tinted, we have a failed bullish breakout, plain as day.
Just a comment cleaner to say…………well, THAT was kind of obvious, wasn’t it? This toggling, on-again/off-again, bipolar market prevails. Monday, a holiday. Tuesday, down big. Wednesday, up big. Thursday, down big. And today……..do I even have to say it?
Indeed, it isn’t just this week. Looking at the SPY, which is the biggest and most basic of the ETFs, you can see this “change every single day” situation has been in force with almost perfection for longer than that.