In this article, I am going to do something a little different from my usual articles and start with my perspective on market direction, and then move into the issues I see in the market today.
I have long believed that we can see the 3000+ region before we get that 30% correction I have been looking for in the 2019-2020 time frame. And, as usually occurs, that market top will be accompanied by excessive bullishness among the masses. While many of the pundits have believed we will crash every week for years, the public seems to ignore them (appropriately) and have become much more bullish of late.
As one indication of such bullishness, the University of Michigan reported on Friday that U.S. consumer sentiment jumped more than forecast in September to a six-month high as Americans grew more optimistic about the economy and their purchasing plans. While I do not believe that this suggests that the 30% correction I am expecting will begin immediately, it certainly provides evidence that we are approaching that top.