Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Yield Positioned for Upside Acceleration

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Ten-year Yield has climbed to a new post-July 2016 (1.32%) high at 3.17%, the highest yield since July 2011, over 7 years ago!

From a technical perspective, today’s surge above May-Oct 2018 resistance at 3.11% is a reaction to very strong recent data showing strong ADP Payrolls for September (230,000 vs. 185,000 expected), and impressive ISM Non-manufacturing data across the Headline data (61.6 vs. 58 expected), as well as the sub-surveys in Business Activity, Prices, Orders and Employment for September.

With 10-year Yield perched at new 7-year highs at 3.17% ahead of Friday’s BLS monthly Jobs Report, the set-up for Yield is positioned for upside continuation and acceleration. (more…)

Boofing Bonds

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Good morning, everyone, and greetings from the dark and quiet suburb of Palo Alto, California. My dogs are all curled near my fight, all too familiar with my morning routine and awaiting their walk. So let’s get to it. The charts, that is, not the walk.

As most of you know, I’ve been kind of interest-rate-obsessed all year, and with good reason. We live on a globe absolutely choking on debt, and rising interest rates are probably the single most constrictive thing imaginable in such a scenario. It is therefore important to maintain not just an awareness of bonds, but an awareness of the broader trends as to just how big they might move. Looking at the /ZB this morning, we continue to inch toward the next important break point, tinted in cyan:

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