Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Don’t Fear The Reaper

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It has been a while since we have seen a Three Day Rule signal fix, in part because the rule requires an initial 2% decline, and those have been pretty rare over the last couple of years, but the Three Day Rule triggers when there has been a minimum 2% decline on SPX and then SPX closes back over the 5 day moving average. That is day one, and that happened on Tuesday. The rule looks at the next two days and if there is a close back below the 5dma on either day then the rule fixes. That close back below happened yesterday, on day three. On this statistic we could see a fairly marginal high over the current rally high this week, but whether we see that or not, SPX should retest the low at 2710 in the near future. The only exceptions to this rule since the start of 2007 were two instances when an overall triangle was forming, and rather than a full retest of the previous low there were marginal higher lows over that low in the next few days.

This is the highest probability stat that I follow, and SPX is very likely to retest the 2710 low in the next few days. (more…)

TLT-ing Lower

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Unrelated to anything else I’m about to say: the two biggest cultural influences of my life are (a) Star Trek, the original series and (b) Monty Python’s Flying Circus. I mention this because Netflix now has just about everything related to Monty Python you can imagine, including a wonderful documentary I’m watching now called Almost the Truth. If you are a MPFC fan and have Netflix, I encourage you to check it out.

On less funny subjects……..I am very pleased at how bonds are continuing to breakdown. It is precisely what I hoped would happen.

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