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SPX closed ten handles or so over the 5dma yesterday, so SPX is back on the Three Day Rule. If SPX should close back below the 5dma today or Monday then we should expect a retest of the last low at 2583.23 in the near future. At the moment the 5dma is at 2638 and SPX looks likely to close the day below it.
As it happens that would just confirm the bear flag rising wedge that has already broken down on ES with the same minimum target, so one way or the other that retest looks likely. At that point we could see the second low of a double bottom or continuation down towards the major support area below at 2530-40, the 2018 low and possible H&S neckline at 2532, and the annual pivot at 2538.
Our target for the first half of 2019 is and has been the 2100 to 2200 area for the S&P 500. A friend asked…
I’ve been meaning to ask (and possibly) know the answer, 2100-2200
for H1 2019 is your ultimate bear market target or opening act?
Opening act. It could be the ultimate target because there is a lot
of support at that area and a good solid bear phase could put the Fed on
ice and impose some changes to Donald Trump’s bull in a China shop
Good morning, everyone, and happy Friday to you. Having taken a red eye last night, I’m definitely feeling it. There’s nothing quite like “sleeping” in a nearly vertical position, surrounded by strangers.
Well before I got on the plane, the ES and NQ took a nice tumble, ostensibly due to some more Trumpian scandals. As the selloff was really picking up steam, a big government obviously had to do something, so this concession was swiftly trotted out: