Double Bag It

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I’ll preface this by saying that today is going to be a strange one. Obviously people are crazy-eyed optimistic at this point, but the real “news” won’t happen, it seems, until just after the close (how about that timing, eh?) since the Trump trade meeting at the White House was oh-so-coincidentally scheduled at the end of the trading day. Thus, I’m not sure how useful any kind of “analysis” is going to be leading up to this binary event. We’ll need to wait until Monday morning to see what goes where.

In the meanwhile………..a guaranteed way to lose this money for 2019 has been to go into any initial public offerings. Stock after stock had CNBC-driven mania around it right up until their investment banks dumped the shares on retail bagholders, and it’s been a bath ever since.

Here is one nice example. SmileDirectClub, shown below. There are scads of others (Slack, Peloton, and even golden oldies like Groupon and GoPro, but you get the idea).

Beyond Meat, admittedly, did great at first, but for months now it has transformed to Beyond Boring. It’s pretty clear that someone wants this stock “pinned” just above that horizontal! Of course, shorting this is madness, because its borrow rate is something like 300%.

As for the market in general…….on the bearish side of things, even with the insane 1000+ point Dow surge and 100+ ES surge, this is still nothing more than a series of lower highs. On the bull side……….it would take just one piece of good news to break this series. Psychologically, 3000 is key.

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