Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Sleepless in Shallow Alto

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As I begin this post, it’s 4:30 in the morning. I’ve been awake since 1:30. I’m usually a brilliant sleeper. I close my eyes and 10 and fall asleep instantly, and then I wake up at 5:20 a.m. with no alarm and get my day started. Not this time. It’s been too crazy.

Think of what’s transpired. Last Wednesday, the market was at the highest levels in human history (which is a little peculiar, since the whole “virus” thing was well known and spreading fast). Yesterday, we had the biggest drop on the Dow in human history. Added to which, this has been the shortest 10%+ drop in equities in human history. Absolutely incredible.

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$2 Trillion Later

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Well, I think we’ve all stumbled upon a way to reduce the wealth gap that even Bernie Sanders himself couldn’t beat: just destroy it! In a matter of days, a full $2 trillion of equity value has just…………disappeared. The bottom 95% haven’t felt a thing.

Even I, the most bearish of permabears, didn’t see this coming. Not even close. But one chap did, however. He’s someone I’ve admired and respected for years, and someone I consider a friend: he is Attila. Back on February 11th, he said this:

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US10YT Drops To A New Low

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I last wrote about US 10-Year Treasury Yields in my post of August 16, 2019, which warned of potential upcoming weakness in the equity market. It was trading at 1.556.

Since then, it rose to a high of 1.952 in December, reversed course sharply in January, and has plunged to an all-time new low of 1.254 as of 2:15 pm ET today (Thursday), as shown on the following Monthly chart, as equity markets reached a 10% correction level this morning.

The big question is, is this capitulation or is it a warning of further equity weakness?

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