Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HK50) has been massively underperforming China’s Shanghai Index (SSEC) since January 2019, as shown on the following monthly charts.
In fact, the HK50 broke below the bottom of its Andrew’s Pitchfork channel in March this year, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world from Wuhan, China and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and untold catastrophic global economic destruction.
Such a channel break usually signals a shift in trend and sentiment from bullish to bearish. In fact, that has already occurred with the formation of lower highs and lows on this monthly timeframe. As well, the Balance of Power has, once again, turned negative.
On Memorial Day, I decided to do a risk-free experiment.
I have been mightily plagued in recent days with thoughts about the market. Is it just going to keep going up for another decade, just like it did from 2009 to 2019? Is this bounce almost over? Was Feb 20-Mar 23 a total fluke that won’t happen again in our lifetimes?
It’s too scary to actually risk money on hypotheticals, but I decided to go “all in” (virtually speaking) with an entirely long portfolio and an entire short portfolio. Here are some common properties of these two portfolios:
- They will all have entry prices equal to the closing price of May 22nd;
- They are all equally sized dollar amounts;
- Each portfolio has a hypothetical $500,000 invested ($4,000 in each of 125 short positions and $20,000 in each of 25 long positions)
Let’s take a look at the longs………