Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Goldback

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At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was flat, and jobless claims fell far below official expectations. Secondly, the Federal interest rate was turning negative. Also, the measurement of Money Velocity reported that people are saving money more than spending it. As a result, this can adversely impact the US dollar and the GDP, creating the problem of inflation.

On the other hand, the gold price continues to grow and reaches new highs seemingly every day. Why is this happening? Basically, the gold price rises for the same reasons it usually does. Geopolitical unrest and events, waning faith in fiat currency, and the coronavirus are all major factors.

Currently, the gold price already grew 30% this year, so now it is on track for a great year similar to 1979. But if you are an investor in the stock market, hearing that inflation fears are driving up the precious metals prices might not put you in the best of spirits. Many new investors are entering the precious metals scene as a result, but many also lack direction. Are you worried about inflation and want to buy gold, but the gold price is off-putting? One solution is the Utah Goldback.

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De-Frothed?

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After reaching nearly $2100 per ounce in futures trading, gold has been put through the wringer recently, having tumbled last night to as low as $1875. No one knows if there’s more selling forthcoming (although personally my main hang-up is that gold is acting way too much like the S&P 500, as all assets seem to be moving together).

The GLD chart reflects a zone of support a 179.16. If brutal selling resumes, there’s not much holding it up until about $171.

GLDSUP

Are Tech Giants Trading like Bonds?

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The tech giants are trading at valuation ratios that are close to unprecedented for such large companies. Currently, Amazon trades at a nosebleed price/earnings multiple of 122. Apple’s multiple is 33 which is extraordinary for a hardware manufacturer. Netflix clocks in at 84. Tesla leads the pack at 752, but that is largely due to its miniscule earnings. Overall, it is hard to look at these valuations without thinking “bubble.” But there is another interpretation.

At Cornell Capital Group we asked: What if the major tech giants (and I would exclude Tesla from this group) are trading as if they were quasi-bonds? That is a combination of their technology, their market power and the impact of Covid is such that their projected earnings are virtually locked-in. They are largely immune from the risk of competition and the fluctuations in the economy. If that were true, then the discount rate may be a good deal lower than that implied by traditional asset pricing models. To get an idea what this means, let’s go back to the basics.

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