Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Hellflation or Liquidation Ahead

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Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble?

[edit] With a note that another, less viable option is possible as well. That would be a ‘just right’ Goldilocks gently disinflationary option similar to the 2012-2019 phase.

[edit2] A subsequent post notes another reason the Fed may be erring dovish, as the Bank sector negatively diverges long-term yields (30yr has ticked the underside of our target zone of 2.5% to 2.7%, after all) and the yield curve continues to flatten.

The asset bubble that almost ended in Q1 2020 was rescued by two main saviors, 1) unsustainable bearish (no, terrorized) sentiment and even more so, 2) balls out central bank inflation, led by the US Federal Reserve. The resulting bubble leg was in the bag from the moment the dovish Fed made its first headline about asset purchases and rate cuts.



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If I had any balls………any at ALL………..I would be shorting stuff left, right, and sideways right now. But after a week like this, I am in a fetal position in a corner of the room, swaying back and forth.

Just as a marker, I’ll share a trade I wanted to make, but simply couldn’t. Shorting 100 shares of TSLA at $900. It managed to get up to $902 or so, so I definitely would have been filled. Let’s just watch this plunge for weeks to come, shall we?