Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Reason for the Season

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Baby Bear thoughtfully sent me the chart below, which I’ve also seen elsewhere. The yellow tint is my own.

My point is a simple one: as alluring as the data from the past seventy years can be, we’re living in such an incredibly unprecedented set of circumstances, I’m not so sure seasonality is useful. The portion I’ve tinted aligns with the most horrible part we bears have endured this year, June 15 through August 15. On June 14th, what kind of insight would this chart have provided to us about what was coming? Absolutely none. On the contrary, it would have been completely misleading. So, with all humility, and a respect for potentially self-paradoxical irony, it’s different this time.

Millions Lost!

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During the course of just one day, I got a one-two punch with respect to our primary residence. First, I got our annual interest rate update from the bank, and our rate is, unsurprisingly, vaulting from 2.5% to 4.5%. On the heels of that, like a bond getting zapped by changing rates, our home value has plunged by nearly $3,000,000.

Just like I wasn’t feeling it on the way up, I’m not feeling it on the way down. I honestly don’t care. Regarding the the interest rate, we owe so little on the property, it hardly matters. As for the principal loss, I think not of myself but instead the poor son-of-a-bitch who actually bought at the peak and not only is underwater but also has the joy of property taxes being anchored to his purchase price. There’s got to be more than a few of those fellows out there at this very moment.

A Ratio Analog (by LZ)

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Here’s the USO/TLT ratio layered with the SPY/QQQ ratio and, on the second chart, the inverted SPY, both synched.. This looks like late May to me.

Bright side: this rally won’t have much further to go if USO/TLT continues rising. 

Dark side: this isn’t fast enough to be actionable right away. My gut says above ES 3820 there is more pain for bears.

Looking out beyond the immediate days ahead, the outlook for NASDAQ darkened. The outlook for the U.S. dollar strengthened. Rising oil (Japan, EU, China all import and have to spend reserves or print local currency) and rising interest rates have been bullish for USD this year. As long as stocks aren’t frontrunning positive developments yet to come in bonds and energy, the rally is on borrowed time.

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