Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Crucial Funds

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It should first be noted – – nay, emphasized – – that these charts and the words about them are being composed the day before the monthly CPI number is released. Although the CPI was absolutely meaningless for years and years, it has now become an even more important data point than the jobs report, since inflation data has an outsized influence on market strength or weakness. Thus, if you are reading this any time after the CPI of November 14th is released, the conclusions offered may be moot.

Having begun with that important disclaimer, I will say that the ten charts of the ETFs that follow bear an important common element: they have all moved powerfully up toward key resistance levels. In almost all these cases, the resistance is represented by a simple horizontal line (or, its equivalent, a Fibonacci level). Some prices are closer to resistance than others, but on the whole it can be said that (1) the more of these that fail to cross above these lines, the better chance bears have of seizing control of the market again; (2) the more of these lines are crossed to the upside, the higher the chance the bulls will simply continue running roughshod over the bears through at least the end of the year.


Simply Stated

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So let’s just all take a deep breath and recognize one simple truth: for months now, the /ES has been engaged in a steady series of lower lows and lower highs. Until this is violated, I remain short, Cathie Wood and Tom Lee be damned. To be clear, I think this market sucks infected donkey, thus I have 30% cash, but my remaining 12 positions are in the green, and I shall defend them vigorously.