Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

“Peak Oil” Nonsense

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Peak Oil? Nonsense. Sure, conserve energy and go green and all that, but let's stick to the facts about oil reserves.

Otherwise, I’ve just about had it with this dramatized rant and whoop and holler by certain a certain poster here and other alarmists about the “Dangers of Peak Oil.” He goes around on the net finding other soothsayers that supports his theory to get more hype for his website, and cries “fire” to get people to stampede his website for more information on how to head off another “crisis.”

Slope is too sacred of a temple of truth to allow this crap to splash the walls and not get cleaned off.

I'm just a Petroleum Engineer, not a scientist or a Doctorate PS Bullshitist, but about the closest thing you'll know to an expert on the subject of oil reserves, other than "THE Expert," whomever the media says that is next.

Over the past 33 years mankind has consumed more than three times the world’s known oil reserves in 1976 – and today proven oil reserves are nearly double what they were before we started. The story with natural gas is even better – here and around the world enormous amounts of natural gas have been found. More will be found.

There will never be "no oil" in your lifetime, so relax, and discern the truth for yourself when you get the facts. If you are old enough to read this, your shiny car will have plenty of gasoline for your lifetime. You may not be able to afford it, but they cannot possibly run out. So all you have to do is make some money with us here on Slope, and you’re set, just like the politicians. Whenever there is GREAT change, there is also GREAT opportunity. It is impossible to be otherwise. Instead of worrying about the black hole right now, look for new opportunities… it won't take long, they're EVERYWHERE.

Now that oil is $80/bbl, it opens the door to production of different grades of oil and different kinds of oil, and new places that oil was never thought to exist.

America has the biggest "Shale Oil" field in the world, at over a trillion barrels, that has never been tapped until two years ago, because it will be expensive to extract, and the technology has not yet been improved enough to tackle it before then. But money solves a lot of problems, and $100/bbl oil would certainly do it. You will have to be surprised how fast the technology will ramp up when there's a profit to be made. Just type in “shale oil reserves” into your little Search Bar, and you’ll come up with hundreds of new projects that have never before been thought possible. And these are primarily domestic, lower 48 States, where the oil in America was thought to be depleted!

Ever heard of the Bakken Formation? No? Why not? GOOGLE it, Mr. OilPrice, or follow this link. It will blow your mind. http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. There’s enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 40 years straight. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL! Well, except we know those damn oil barrons are going to gouge us, but cheap oil nonetheless.

Another example of huge unexpected and unknown reserves are the "Coal Oil" sands in Canada that they are already extracting by truck and converting to usable oil. It's slower to extract and convert than to simply produce liquid oil, but the one field they are producing from today is bigger than the Saudi field, which is the biggest in the world. And that isn't the only "Coal Oil" field in Canada, and certainly not the only one in the world. These Coal Oil fields contain almost as much oil as the Saudi Arabian oil fields.

Most people don't realize that we only produce about 20% of the oil from a producing oil sand (conventional production), and leave the rest of it there because it was too expensive to produce by secondary or tertiary recovery methods. That is no longer true, so the natural oil reserves just doubled when the price of oil doubled.

One more real obvious report that you should have caught up on, is the the Stansberry Report from 2006. Hidden only 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world. It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. Who gives a blinking crap about “Peak Oil?” It’s just more jargon that we don’t understand to create a crisis from (sorry about the hanging past participle).

Governments and alarmists that don’t care about the truth or the facts are good at creating crisis after crisis, so that they can be your friend and be the only one to solve the problem, that is, by taking control, taking your rights, enacting more laws, forming more committees out of their cousins, and generally living like Kings off of years of perceived crisis. Oh yeah, and they can take over whole countries if they need to and the gullible public is behind them on an invasion, and they can get enough young people to fight their special-interest wars for them.

No sir, the only real perceived crisis here is that the great masses of people will figure out that there is not a shortage, but rather an EXCESS of oil, for centuries to come, and that the price of oil should be back down around $20/bbl. Whatta ya’ know, we’ve been lied to again.

When I was in college in the 1970's, the known problem of that time was that temperatures were getting "colder." By the year 2030, it would be so cold that plants could not live and man would face extinction without drastically changing things. That was to be in my lifetime.

But now the "experts" claim "Global Warming." It's all just a theory, like Evolution, but after so many "experts" parrot the "truth" in the media, and even colleges and universities begin teaching it as truth, then it becomes "truth,' even when at best it's a 50-50 shot. I’ve read that 63% of those surveyed were “concerned” about Global Warming. Geez, don’t people even know how to ask the right questions anymore?

Why make a crisis out of something? There's money to be made, control to be taken, and new gov't offices to fill. And of course, the 30-year cooling trend that prompted the global cooling scare in the mid-70s abruptly ended in the late 70s, replaced by with a 20-year warming trend that peaked in 1998.

Watch this short video from the founder of the Weather Channel how he blows Al Gore's climate change scam out the window. Finally, a REAL EXPERT showing the fallacy of the concept of "global warming". www.kusi.com/home/78477082.html?video=pop&t=a

Philosophy Section

If you don’t mind, I would like to delve a little bit into what you might think you “know.” Tim likes philosophical stuff, so maybe he will let me rant on the rant, of why I’m having to waste my time keeping others from wasting your time with more worthless and time-consuming “information” that doesn’t hold a candle to truth.

How can a “Theory” of Evolution be taken as fact so easily, when this treatise involved in biology asserts no proof, or even a well-defined premise, that man evolved from apes? Even if the truth we are seeking were revealed, people believe that because they comprehend, they conclude that they have successfully taken in the material and reached a proper conclusion. Permanent incorporation requires repeated exposures and answering difficult questions. We can eliminate this major misconception or false expectation with the evidence of psychological research and the Ebbinghaus Curve of Forgetting. Recall deteriorates rapidly unless refreshed; a known fact, proven.

Well, getting too long-winded. I’ve written a whole Essay on truth and how we “know” things, another four pages. It even answers the question “What is truth?” Not even Plato could answer that question.

If anybody’s interested, let me know, and I’ll post it. Oh, and as an aside, it even answers the question of “Why did God create man?” with a darn good “theory.” I challenge you to come up with a better one.

For the Small Trader, from a Small Trader (by b2fnow)

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This post is for the small guy. If you’ve got plenty of money in your trading account, you can stop reading right here, unless you are just curious what the perfect setup will be for little or nothing; for the small guy.

Any other small-fry traders out there? Anyone with less than $25,000 trying to day trade is financially challenged. Anyone with less than $5,000 is super-challenged, and a small-fry trader.

I’ve used technologically advanced trading platforms like Realtick through TerraNovaOnline for $300/mo, and many others, and it’s all wonderfully beautiful and complex. But NinjaTrader also has programming capability and back-testing capability and a built-in simulator like some of the premium packages such as TradeStation, and all the features necessary for trading.

I want to help people see that there is a way to trade both the Forex futures and spot market for free, i.e., no data fees, no exchange fees, no platform fees — zero overhead — all free. Maybe you will try it if it costs you nothing. I get nothing out of this, maybe a thank you.

Check out this link to the NinjaTrader trading platform with the free Zen-Fire data feed, and download the 30-day free trial. I’ve seen them extend the free-trial period three or four times.

Here’s a screenshot of one out of five of my NinjaTrader futures screens.

Home Screen

Here you have Level II quotes, the Control Center is slid over to hide my personal info, and on the right is the SuperDom for one-click position entry. It also enters and manages stops, targets, OCO orders, trailing stops, and multiple positions; very intuitive. The Market Analyzer at the bottom is my Watch List (black background), but notice in the last column that it notified me with a number one in the right-hand column (condition True) of a breakout in the eMini, Dow mini, and Nasdaq futures. It also beeped at me to wake me up to do something. NinjaTrader is an excellent alternative to any trading platform you may have that is costing you a monthly fee.

I prefer Mini Dow Futures and Forex Futures, but I'm a small fry, and I'm swinging for the fences with too much leverage because of a small account. I become afraid to hit the button when highly leveraged and miss a lot of trades, get out too early, and generally don't trade my system or follow my plan simply because of the huge swings in my account due to leverage. I tend to trade my account value, rather than the trading plan. Like a lot of you, I'm a day trader, without the option to hold overnight because of the leverage. But with the Forex spot market, you can leverage down to zero, and even the small fry can hold a position when he/she knows when to hold 'em.

For free, I can do this forever. I’m not pressured to overtrade when my trading overhead is zero. Commissions are $6 total per position, so I can jump in and out quickly and more often with only one point necessary to cover commission fees. But I’m still too over-leveraged when trading Futures. So I set up another account, on another computer, and use NinjaTrader Forex to trade the cash currencies in a mini account. And again, all for free.

You think that you might be willing to try trading Forex futures for free? Good, huh? Here’s the great part. I drug out an old 1GHz Pentium III computer with 500MB of memory, added two dual video cards, and it runs NinjaTrader Forex cash currency markets with four monitors just fine. Oh, and did I mention, that for free, I can keep on keepin’ on.

I don’t think you can run both the Futures and the FX currencies on the same machine, because they have two different licenses and conflict. So drag out that old machine; you got nothing to lose.

Drawbacks

Yes, you do have to open one or two more accounts and fund them both. But you can start with as little as $1,000 in the futures account and $500 in the FX account, both through NinjaTrader. The broker for the first will be through Dorman, and the latter will be through Forex.com (forget FXCM). Margin rates for the futures account are all $500 or less for the currencies and index futures. Oil is higher, but who trades oil? At TerraNova, they wanted $2,700 margin to trade the Dow Mini and $3,500 to trade the eMini. At NinjaTrader, they only require $400 margin for either, and I can trade six contracts if I want with the same money I had before. Geez, how much trouble can I get into now?

NinjaTrader only comes with two weeks of intraday historical data, and no daily data. You can download the daily data at the following links for free, and your intraday data will build over time. You can trade stocks through NinjaTrader, but you will have to pay for a data feed; the cheapest I’ve found is $45/mo, but here’s a complete list.

http://www.ninjatrader-support.com/HelpGuideV6/helpguide.html?HistoricalData

Free Forex historical data: http://www.fxhistoricaldata.com/

Free Futures historical data: http://pitrading.com/free_market_data.htm

As soon as you download the free trial, set up your Market Analyzer first with all the contracts you want to watch to begin accumulating historical intraday data. The charts you setup will also start accumulating data, but you may switch or close the charts. Set up the Market Analyzer to accumulate the data you want.

If you want to see the NinjaTrader Support Forum and all their strategies and indicators you can download for free, go here:

Here’s the NinjaTrader Help and Support Guide

See ratings and discussion for the different Forex and Futures brokers and platforms here:

Forex broker ratings:

Like you, I had to work hard to stay afloat in 2009. The last day, I devoted part of my holiday to the better good of this forum and your success. Don’t waste it; get going and make 2010 a year of harvest. You have everything to gain.

 

Happy New Year!

http://forex-trading.bluecollarnews.com

master trader?

useful e books:

http://www.traderssecretcode.com

Forex simulator:

Free Charts

Blogs

Economic Calendar

List of Forex Platforms and software

NinjaTrader platform

for beginners

http://softwareforexreviews.blogspot.com/2009/10/forex-software-project.html#comments

Canadian Dollar

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Below is a CAD/USD hourly futures chart (not USD/CAD as normally displayed) showing a range of about two months covering 300 points or more.

The CAD broke out overnight, but with USD strength this morning, has pulled back to retest double support at the top of the range. Even with USD strength the past week, the CAD has been stronger. Stay tuned for the next 300 point move.
CAD 12_29_2009 (60 Min) - Range - small

Below is the USD/CAD daily chart

$USDCAD 12_29_2009 (Daily) spot