Fujisan – Slope of Hope – Technical Tools for Traders

Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Time for the Harvest (by Fujisan)

By Fujisan - 13 years ago (26, Sep 2010 6:10:39 AM)

My apologies for being silent for a while. I decided to stay away from the blogsphere as it's sometimes hard to focus on my own perspectives when I hear too many noises.

(BTW, what happened to that "Hindenburg Omen" that everybody was talking about not so long ago??)

Now that I see the big bear (i.e., TK) posting the bullish breakouts, I decided to share some of my thoughts today.

As the US indices have been pretty flat for the past many months, I have been trading other financial vehicles which have more clear paths and the trendlines, and I have been using them as my leading indicators to pick the directions on the general markets.

Here are some charts that I have been trading lately. EEM, AUD, and EUR are all in the beautiful 5 waves upside structures ready to complete this leg up pretty soon.

EEM Daily

EWH Daily

EUR Daily

AUD Daily

SPY has been pretty flat compared with the other international markets. In fact, it's one of the most bearish looking charts of them all. By all means, it's almost completing ab=cd pattern at 116.36.

Here is another look of SPY charts with my favorite Person's pivots. As you can see, ab=cd upside target of 116.36 incidentally clusters with both monthly and weekly R1 pivots so I'm expecting a strong resistance at this level and a possible pullback. This goes well with EEM, EUR, AUD almost completing the upside targets.

QQQQ Daily

Qs just hit the upper side of the channel on Friday.

INTERMEDIATE MARKET VIEWS

I have posted some intermediate to long term charts previously and I'm delighted to say that they are all right on the track. For those who are interested, here is the link to my original post on May 29.

NDX Weekly

RUT Weekly

INDU Monthly

Here is the upate of my INDU monthly. Here is the link to my original post on March 6th. I had a discussion about three peaks and the domed house chart pattern and the resolution to this pattern using the daily chart.

UUP Weekly

Needless to say, I have a very bearish outlook on the dolloar.

HIGH FLIERS

Last but not least, AAPL and AMZN are getting close to my target prices. Here is the link to my original post on the price projections on AAPL and AMZN on May 2nd.

AAPL Weekly

AAPL Daily

Isn't it amazing that I came up with the same price targets both in the weekly and daily charts??

AMZN Weekly with Original Target as of May 2nd.

AMZN Daily

I have a higher price target for AMZN based on the daily chart.

EWM Daily

No, this is not NFLX, AAPL, or BIDU. This is one of my favorites, Malaysia ETF, which has just hit my price target last week.

Have a good weekend, everyone!

Three Drives Pattern (by Fujisan)

By Fujisan - 13 years ago (29, May 2010 7:41:15 AM)

Today, I got a series of my favorite "Three Drives Patterns" for you Slopers. I am seeing this pattern in SPX and RUT, hourly and daily. Or is this one of those examples of "when you get the hammer, all the problems look like nails"?

SPX Daily

RUT Daily

VIX Daily

SPX Hourly

If the Friday's low holds, this will make a very nice three drives pattern on the hourly chart.

NDX Weekly

Although I cannot stop the bears from calling SPX 300, I could still present a very clean IH&S pattern on NDX. If this pattern holds, there is going to be another run up after this consolidation toward the end of the year.

RUT Weekly

This is not as clean as NDX, but RUT is also forming a right shoulder of the IH&S pattern.

Have a good Memorial Day holiday, everyone!

SPY May OPX Pin Play (by Fujisan)

By Fujisan - 13 years ago (09, May 2010 7:22:46 AM)

Well, that was quite a week, wasn't it??

Now that we have an intermediate top in, I have the short term and intermediate term market view update together with SPY OPX (Option Expiration) pin play (yes, OPX is coming up in two weeks!!) today.

(My charting software is not working at the moment, so please bear with me with the TOS charts).

SPY Daily Update

There are many discussions as to whether the Thursday's lows were legitimate or not, and my take on this is YES, they are the legitimate lows and therefore, the market is coming to retest those lows.

Under the normal circumstances, when there is a big wick like Thursday, the market typically comes to retest the end of the wick, which is 105 in this case. SPX's wick only goes down to 1066 so I will be watching that level as well.

Now, if you are interested in taking advantage of this downside move, here is one of SPY 110/105 spread examples for you.

If you take a look at SPY May Open Interests (OI), you can see many OI at 115, 110, and 105 levels. My take is that SPY would come to retest 105 toward the end of this week, then move up to 110 toward OPX (and possibly expire right around 108.50. I have seen many times when SPX settles right at 1100 level whereas SPY settles at a much lower price. If you are planning to do a pin play, you might like to consider 108 as a possible pin).

(On a side note – I use the option OI as one of my indicators just like MACD, Stoch, Moving average, etc. When the market rallied to form the right shoulder last Monday (wow, it feels like a loooooong time ago!), I was contemplating whether to close out my shorts or not….. and when I looked at the option open interests, it looked very bearish, so I decided to hold on to my shorts. It saved me from taking the wrong side of the trade many times before).

Once SPY comes to retest 105 and gets a price rejection, you might like to flip your position to the long side to take advantage of the rally toward OPX.

Intermediate Market View

In my "Jumping the Creek" March 6 post, I laid out the possible market path for INDU as follows as a resolution to the "Three Peaks and Domed House" pattern. I'm still looking at this as a potential path for the coming months.

SPX Monthly Gartley Pattern

Every time when I see 61.8% retracement, I always think about the Gartley Pattern. As both INDU and SPX retraced to 61.8%, I would consider the Gartley as a very possible pattern to be forming for the coming months.

VIX Monthly

VIX 60 looks like a very good target for this down leg.

Happy Mother's Day, everybody!

Consolidation Continues (by Fujisan)

By Fujisan - 13 years ago (02, May 2010 11:01:56 AM)

The general market finally started the consolidation. Here are some updates on SPY and IWM.

SPY Daily

I have a short term downside target of 115.17.

IWM Daily

IWM has already broken the Tuesday's low. My short term target is 69.80.

GS Daily

I shorted many financials together with GS and they are all doing quite nicely. GS is the key for the general market to make a new higher high for the coming months.

XLF Daily

BIDU Weekly

BIDU made exactly the two folds from the breakout point and closed right at a=c target.

AAPL Weekly

Whatever happened to BIDU would happen to AAPL if the pattern holds. This is a great opportunity to look for a good long entry for the long-term AAPL position. I would be probably looking into the recent gap fill to put on the Jan 11 butterfly position.

AMZN Weekly

Consolidation Time! (by Fujisan)

By Fujisan - 13 years ago (18, Apr 2010 3:48:20 AM)

It looks like the market finally started a correction on Friday, which was a major relief for both bulls and bears. I'm happy that I can go short now and I have some bearish charts to share this week.

OPX Roadmap

Here is the road map that I laid out last Monday in the comment section, which worked out quite nicely. I used the January OPX chart as my road map for Apr OPX week.

Now, some of you asked me — what will happen next week? Does this pattern hold?

My take on this is yes, it will. It should bounce back up early next week, and then resume to the downside later on the week.

(My TOS chart is not working at the moment (is TOS down again?) and I won't be able to show you my ES hourly chart, but I see a H&S pattern formation).

I also mentioned that I'm expecting 4~8% correction for the coming 2 weeks, and then resume to the upside in early May. My market view will not be changed unless the selloff accelerates with much higher volume.

Trading GS

GS made a big drop on Friday, and I'm expecting this selloff continues.

TM Daily Chart (for Comp Purpose)

This is what happened to Toyota back in January when they revealed the mechanical problems with Prius.

GS Daily

Here is the GS daily chart. $124 is my short term target.

Here is the GS weekly chart.

JPM Daily

FAS Daily

Financials were being hit pretty hard on Friday due to the GS scandal. $84.64 is my short term target. I would have a better target price once the retracement is complete.

IYR Daily

Assuming IYR is going to form a H&S pattern, my short term target is $47.61 (will adjust my target after the formation of RS).

DRN Daily (3x bull IYR)

Assuming DRN is forming H&S pattern, my short term target is $157 (will adjust my target after the formation of RS).

EUR/USD Pair

This currency pair is going through sideway consolidation and I have no sense ot direction until it breaks out of this rectangular pattern. It closed the Sunday gap on Friday.

SPX Daily

I drew a trendline in all three major indices and they all hold the the trendlines and the other three still hold the major support levels. COMP and RUT still look very strong.