Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Bull/Bear Cases Going into 2012 (by Heavenskrow)

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Happy New Year, everyone!  Hope everyone had a safe and fun NYE.  I am sorry I haven't been updating as much over winter break. Unlike other investors/traders, I have no target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2012. I am not even going to waste my time guessing.

After reviewing 1500+ charts (no life) ,there are cases for both bull and bear and that is why I think the Sp500 ended with the yearly Doji candlestick as well. I will still be referring to deflation/inflation scenarios as opposed to risk on/risk off as I think the markets still haven't decided what will be the real outcome.

For example usually bonds and stocks move in the same direction…but when there is a deflation spiral, bonds and stocks start moving the inverse of each other…. Some guys who have been spot on in 2011, like Hugh Hendry and Jerry Lou from Morgan Stanley called the commodity spike as a "head fake" and only time will tell if they were right.


Stagflation 70s…. 2000s (by Heavenskrow)

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"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." – Mark Twain

A little fun chart based on the 187(gangster code for murder) exponential monthly moving average.

The 70s were a period of stagflation similar to what we have now…. which also led to a gold spike in the 80s as well as interest rates spiking.

First the market tops out in 1968(2000) and we pull back to the 187 monthly EMA but never close below it and then start the next cyclical bull.