Slope of Hope Blog Posts
This is the heart and soul of the web site. Here we have literally tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. You can also click on any category icon to see posts tagged with that particular category.
On September 6, with the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) reaching a new low (33.32) in its 7-month corrective process, we noted that “Dec-Sep correction could be at or nearing a downside exhaustion.”
Our RSI and MACD indicators showed a glaring non-confirmation of the low — and sure enough after the TBT dipped to a new low of 32.99 the next day, it went on to rally over the next four sessions, and reached a high of 35.25 this past Wednesday.
On that same day, Wed Sep 20, the Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep the federal funds rate in a range of 1-1.25%, but Fed officials intimated that they may raise rates one more time by year-end, and three times during 2018, in addition to starting Quantitative Tightening in October– the slow, steady reduction of its bloated $4.5 trillion balance sheet. (more…)
An analysis of Amazon (AMZN)’s charts on Monday identified a near-term potentially bullish formation juxtaposed against a tricky, potentially dangerous intermediate-term set up.
From a near-term perspective, AMZN on its hourly chart appeared to be putting in a “falling wedge”-type pattern (the opposite of a rising wedge), which usually represents a trend-ending formation. In this case, it would be the conclusion of the correction off of the July 27 high at 1083.20 to Monday’s low at 942.25.
Often times, the end of the falling wedge will come in the form of one final down-spike beneath the lower wedge boundary line, into marginal new reaction low territory, say beneath 940, into the 936 area, followed by a vicious upside reversal spike and the initiation of a powerful rally that will propel AMZN above 953-960 resistance to confirm the turn. From a near-term perspective then, AMZN should be getting ready for a tradable upmove. (more…)
A week ago, we noted to our members to keep a close eye on Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX).
The chart pattern argued for the price to thrust into a new upleg after completing a 3-week correction.
The correction, from 15.27 on July 26 to 13.81 on Aug 11, held key multi-month support, and positioned the chart into a bullish cup-and-handle formation.
Given the compelling technical set-up — portending greater demand and inflationary pressures in copper and others metals — we added FCX to our model portfolio on August 17 at 14.47.
Home Depot (HD) beat on EPS, Revenues, and Same Store Sales when it reported on Tuesday prior to the market open. However, after initially popping 2.5% to 158.11 from Monday’s 154.26 close, HD reversed sharply into negative territory at 153.00/10 in pre-market action and closed the day at 150.17, down 2.6%.
I am not sure what the selling is all about, except for a “sell-the-news” reaction, but one look at my 4-hour chart of HD, we can see that HD actually peaked back in mid-May, and since has established a series of lower-highs (including Tuesday morning’s spike to another lower-high).
From a near-term perspective, HD needed to hold support in the 152.40/60 area to avert triggering a potentially significant sell signal from one of a handful of powerful, still relevant and profitable, brick and mortar retailers.
By Mike Paulenoff, MPTrader.com
The lower-than-expected build in natural gas inventories (28 bcf vs. expected 37 bcf) in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released yesterday (Thursday, August 10) goosed the price of the nat gas futures.
Our technical work anticipated the move, and we still see continued upside for the futures as well as for the VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ).
The positive juxtaposition of our nearer-term momentum gauges with the sideways price action on the nat gas futures chart (July contract) was one of the indicators we used, which you can see on the chart from August 8.
We actually added a long trade in UGAZ back on August 2, when the nat gas futures clawed their way above important resistance at 2.835, which corresponded to a price of 11.07 in the UGAZ.
As we now know, natural gas rocketed yesterday above the July 31 unfilled downgap area at 2.89-2.92, towards a challenge of the next significant resistance zone at 2.97-3.00.
If hurdled and sustained, this will trigger potential for a run at multi-month resistance at 3.10-3.11.
The UGAZ has already exceeded our initial initial target of 12.40, and is up over 15% since we added it, with our next target at 13.25.
The new all-time high in the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) established on Friday June 9 followed by a high-volume Key Downside Reversal remains the dominant feature of the post-November upleg, and was accompanied by a glaring upside momentum divergence that serves as a warning signal indicative of upside price exhaustion.
2) All of the action since June 9 has carved out a sideways digestion pattern beneath the cresting 20 DMA, usually a harbinger of approaching downside price continuation.
What is the very big picture of spot Gold telling us, if anything? That there is a very bullish outlier scenario that could be unfolding…
We can make the case that all of the action from 2013 through mid-April 2017 is a base-accumulation formation that concluded the major corrective period from the September 2011 high at $1921.50 into the December 2015 low at $1046.20.
It is remarkable that crude oil has managed to hold its Jan-Feb coil support line in the aftermath of two huge builds in the inventory data. That said, however, I keep thinking that Saudi Arabia (and OPEC) are under the market on every $2-$3 decline to preserve the integrity of “The Agreement” and also to support prices into the Saudi-Aramco public offering later this year.
Whether or not there is any truth to my suspicions, the fact remains that for the time being, the high-level coil-digestion formation remains intact and viable, and as long as that is the case, the overall set-up in oil is bullish and in a holding pattern awaiting upside continuation to $56.00 and then to $61.00. Only a reversal and break below $51.22-$50.71 support will wreck the set-up.
Originally published on MPTrader.com.