Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Gold: a Thing of Beauty

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Gold calmly continues cobbling its Handle, Miners lay in wait

You see, there is all this noise out there. It comes mostly from inflationists touting gold in the same breath as copper, as oil, and as commodities of all flavors (and aside from gold and to a degree, silver, those flavors are cyclical).

But you also see, gold is counter-cyclical in its best suit. You see on this monthly chart that gold has been forming its Handle to the bullish Cup ever since the inflation trades came to the fore in the summer of 2020. Therefore, you see that those touting gold and inflation together have been wrong for over a year now (and counting).

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It’s Not Just Copper

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Copper makes the headlines, but GYX has been bullish all along; gold awaits its time as the message from metals land is bullish, risk ‘on’ and cyclical

While copper went through its correction we have been noting each week in NFTRH that the Industrial Metals index, GYX had never aborted its bullish stance. Trends remained up and the index price held the SMA 50’s intermediate trend all the while copper (CPER, which I hold, in lower panel) worked through its summer correction.

The Industrial Metals are a primary indicator of cyclical inflation and by extension, economic reflation.

industrial metals/copper
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Coal Gaining Headlines

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Stagflation, Coal style

My definition of Stagflation is ‘inflation that works to impair the economy’ (as opposed to appearing as a benefit as it does early on) and the problem is gaining momentum in India (and China).

China isn’t the only huge Asian economy with a coal shortage now

I usually make fun of MSM sources like CNBC (MarketWatch, etc.) with their dumb, herd scattering, eyeball harvesting headlines. But this stuff is real. Per this post on my coal holding BTU

“I know as much about coal for energy and steel making as I do about nuclear thermal propulsion. That is, basically nothing.”

Well, now I know more. Every once in a while men who stare at charts…

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Trade/Invest Macro Guide

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Below is an excerpt from an NFTRH report (#676, due out on 10.10) that has not even been written yet, outside of this opening segment that clarifies and makes some of the concepts NFTRH deals in more standard and hence, more readily understandable by more people.

Unless you are a pure day trader there should always be a reason for a given investment stance at any given time. That is because the MACRO (top-down global economic/financial backdrop) is the environment within which the micro (trades, investments) exists. At any given macro juncture there are (generally speaking) dos and don’ts with respect to micro trades and investments. From the October 10th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole

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US Dollar on Plan

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US dollar (DXY) has activated its Inverted H&S, Gold/Silver maintains its uptrend, watch silver going foward…

I do not make predictions because I do not pretend to be a guru.* But NFTRH has been tracking what has been an uptrend in the US dollar for all of 2021, keeping us well aware of the potentials being realized from late summer into the fall. A higher low was made in May and now a higher high, completing an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that we’ve been projecting since USD put in the theoretical right side shoulder last spring.

Until recently it was a projection. Now it is active after testing the (dashed) neckline, holding the (blue) 50 day average and busting to a new high for the cycle. Simple, no predictions but a heck of a lot of attention and respect for the process.

You can see the three targets we’ve had laid out for the world’s reserve currency, which has logically caused market stress of late. It’s as simple as ‘you live (pump markets) by devaluing the currency, you die (markets correct) when it rebels. Now if the rebellion does not become something more than moderate and should end at target #1, we’ll probably go back to our regularly scheduled programming of pervasive inflation problems on the macro.

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