Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Big Picture (by Pat McNeill)

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Hi, I’m Pat
and I’m an Elliott Wave Guy. If you don’t know about Elliott Wave theory I recommend
that you go to the library and read the first four chapters of Elliott
Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter. It should just take you a few hours. These
four chapters summarize the theory in its entirety. Do not research Elliott
Wave on the Internet. Folks are always making stuff up on the Internet and
calling it Elliott Wave when it is not. IMO, the tutorials over at EWI aren't even that good. The book has it all, is the fastest way to learn it, and is the defining reference on the theory.

What will
this do for you? If you have done just a few months of screen time these four
simple chapters will Blow Your Mind. You will never look at markets the same
way again. I have done many thousands of hours of research back testing indicators and relationships within markets and Elliott Wave has become the foundation for all of my analysis. I have never met anyone who understood Elliott Wave Theory and
Markets and concluded that EW is nonsense.

What do we
know about markets?

(1)   Markets move in waves.

(2)   These waves move in trends and
oscillations.

(3)   These waves have structure.

(4)   We can define with rigid rules 5
structures.

(5)   The Market is a fractal; waves at
lower degrees in the fractal combine to make larger waves at higher degrees in
the fractal.

Enough with the pitch. This is
what Elliott Wave is telling us in The Big Picture:

The S&P
500 just dipped below the lower trendline coming up from the Mar. 9 bottom (on
both Linear and Semi-Log scales). IF Primary Wave 3 has begun, we are in a
position compatible to the October 2007 top. However, the number three is a big
deal in Elliott Wave because it is almost always the most forceful wave in a
motive series. This means the upcoming decline
(if it has started) as a three of Primary Degree will be more
forceful (greater price change / faster) then the decline from October 2007 to
March 2009. This is why the Elliott Wave Folk are getting so excited.

091028 Pat McNeill
Click on
the chart for a sharper image.

Thanks again
to Tim and best regards to my fellow Slopers!  
Pat McNeill

Kickoff! (by Pat McNeill)

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(Editor's Note: now that other folks are contributing to Slope, I'm going to put a "By-Line" in the subject to make it more clear that it was written by someone else; far too many people have been thanking me for the hard work of others, and I'd also like to clarify whose opinion belongs to whom – Tim).

When an oscillation is rolling with the primary trend it takes some time to turn things around. The sectors, one by one, fail to make higher highs, then stall, and then begin to decline as their time arises. Financials, Energy, Utilities, and Transports have all shown non-conformances in the past five days. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been quite sluggish. Today’s high at 10:45 am EST was strongly repulsed.

This is when violence ensues – bringing all sectors and markets back into alignment.

091021 Elliott Wave S&P

( Please click on the chart for a sharper image.)

The Impulse Wave up has extended to 5 + 4 = 9 waves. The final subminuette wave has truncated. The channels on SPX and NASDAQ, while quite different in character and timing, have both broken down. With counts at or near completion a correction is here. We cannot say with much confidence how far the correction will take us. We can say with confidence that all the characteristics of a decline of Minor or Minute Degree have fallen into place and declines of this degree take days to complete.

Thanks to Tim Knight and best regards to my fellow Slopers!  - - Pat McNeill