Shortly after closing out the previous FAS short trade for a 29% gain in exactly one month, with a nearly perfectly timed exit on the morning the big August 24th meltdown, FAS (3x long financial ETF) was once again posted as a new short setup in this post last week & went on to trigger an entry later that day when XLF dropped below 22.95.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
I was asked if I had any updates to share on AAPL (Apple Inc) and figured that as the world’s largest publicly traded company & one of (usually THE) most widely held stocks, my thoughts on Apple were worth sharing. In doing so, we’ll begin with a look at the recent technical developments over the past several months & near-term outlook, followed by a look at the weekly & monthly charts and my thoughts on where the stock is most likely headed in the coming months & possibly years.
In this post published on April 28th, literally the very day that AAPL printed it’s all-time high, I had pointed out several bearish technical developments, including a bearish engulfing candlestick, also stating that “clear bearish divergences are signaling that the odds for at least a substantial multi-month correction or bear market (in AAPL) are elevated at this time.” (more…)
The Wilshire 5000, which is the most representative index of the entire US stock market, is currently testing the bottom of the this long-standing 2015 trading range. Based on the technical developments over the last several months+, a downside resolution in the near future appears to be the most probably outcome.
AAPL (Apple Inc) has now fallen to horizontal support where a reaction (i.e.- bounce and/or consolidation) is certainly possible although I have no interest in trying to play a bounce in the stock. In fact, I am short the QQQ’s (in which AAPL is by far the largest component) and with both the intermediate & short-term trends currently bearish, my preference at this time is to sell the rips, not buy the dips.
Only time will tell whether or not the current bull market is just taking a breather or has already exhaled its final breath. With the recent 50/20-day ema death crosses as well as both long-term & short-term trendline breaks (in addition to other recent bearish technical developments), it would appear that, at the very least, the markets are at a critical technical juncture at this time. (Note from Tim: this post is outstanding and timely; click on any of the thumbnails for a much bigger graph):
If and when all key US equity indices are clearly trading below their respective primary bull market uptrend lines shown on these weekly charts, the next major sell signal will come on a bearish crossover of the 43/17-week ema pair (on not one, but all major US stock indices).
The 43/17-week ema pair can be found in the upper-right quadrant of the first two charts below. The 50/20-day ema pair has done a fair job of defining the intermediate-term trend historically and can be found in the lower-left quadrant of the first two charts. The histograms at the bottom of each chart provide a visual representation of whether the faster ema in the pair is trading above or below the slower ema, and by how much.