Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
(To download the stock / ETF ranking model for free, please visit FocalEquity.com. Most traded stocks and ETFs can be found in the Excel output file. Note: quintile ranking 1 = best, 5 = worst.)
It’s the last trading day before the long Labor Day weekend. Volume is going to be light. Once again, due to the holiday season, we are doing a somewhat of light market update and highlight two stocks and discuss briefly QQQ, NASDAQ-100 Index.
NFLX is definitively bearish at the moment. The stock dropped close to 30% from its peak of over $300 this year. Now it’s 14-day SMA is declining. The stock found support at the 50 SMA but now 14-day SMA is a solid resistance. A good short position can be initiated at the declining 14-day SMA at $255 if the stock even bounces to that point. With the ATR measure at 23, it is quite clear that the uptrend of this stock is officially over, at least for the short term.
BID is not particularly bullish. But we expect the stock get up to the 50 SMA at $43. Currently the ATR metric is quite elevated indicating a high degree of volatility. The last time this happened, the stock had nice rally.
The Nasdaq-100 index in deep trouble. The only viable support for this index is the 200 SMA. This index is worse than both the situation of S&P and Dow. Technology sector often can be leading indicators of what is about to happen to the broad market.
The stock model is updated to reflect today’s market move. You can download the entire Excel output file at FocalEquity.com.
For 08/26/2011 trading day, we are going to focus a long position in EBAY (EBAY Inc.) and a short position MRK (Merck) (charts provided by contributor Roller Coaster).
The stock model is updated to reflect today’s market move. You can download the entire model Excel output file at FocalEquity.com.
For 08/25/2011 trading day, we are going to focus a long position in EMC (EMC Corp) and a short position in RIMM (Research in Motion) Charts are provided by contributor Roller Coaster.
According to our ranking model, EMC’s valuation is cheap at the moment based on our book, PE and PE to Growth related composite value factors. In addition, our contrarian indicator indicates more upside potential for the stock. EMC has a Quintile Ranking of 1 ( 1 – best, 5 – worst). The stock is beginning to move up, and the MACD histogram is ticking upwards. EMC may now fill the gap.
RIMM (Research in Motion) ranks poorly within the FocalEquity Stock Ranking model (a Quintile Ranking of 4 ( 1 – best, 5 – worst)) because of the issues related to its earning composite factors. RIMM’s earnings have been terrible. In addition the stock rallied sharply from its low in early August and its contrarian indicator within the model is no longer attractive. It’s now at the 50 EMA and at the gap, which can serve as resistance. RIMM can continue to make lower lows from here.
ETF Model Update:
You can download the entire ETF model Excel output file at FocalEquity.com.
Today we like to highlight ZSL (Proshares Ultrashort Silver). With the huge rally in precious metals in recent trading days, silver is likely going to face another severe round of correction along with gold. ZSL has made a lower low, and the MACD is showing some divergence in the histogram. The histogram appears like it will make a zero line crossover, and the MACD lines appear like they are about to make a crossover.
Using the latest data inputs, the ETF model is giving a mixed signal regarding bull and bear ETFs. The overall tilt is to the bullish side. You should carefully look at each trading signal and ask us questions on our blog if you are uncertain.
The stock model is updated to reflect today’s market move. You can download the entire model Excel output file here: http://www.focalequity.com/2011/08/23/2011-08-23-1225-am-stock-and-etf-model-technial-analysis-update/stockmodelfile_20110822/
Remember we do welcome individual stock and ETF commentary requests. All you have to do is submit your request or questions in the comments section of FocalEquity.com’s top post and we will promptly reply.
Preview of FocalEquity Stock Ranking Model
The FocalEquity Stock Ranking Model is a predominantly fundamental driven stock ranking model. Within the model, we do incorporate two technical related factors that involve the stock’s various moving averages and contrarian indicators. We combine our stock ranking model with our technical analysis/charting based capabilities and determine the long and short stock candidates within various industry groups.
Today, we present three stock examples to illustrate our model and our technical analysis capabilities. We have two long picks and one short pick.