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The XLF can't seem to get its relative strength trending in the right direction, but the Broker-Dealers have been able to do so (at least it seems that trend is beginning). Perhaps the brokers stand to make some serious money with the Build America Bond supply that is supposed to be hitting the market by the end of the year. The Banking Index ($BKX) price action has been quite underwhelming. I'm trying to stay away from the banks, but get exposure to the area of the financial sector that's seeing some action.
Where are the good people of Mexico going to watch Kenny Powers lead the Charros to victory? On Grupo Televisa, of course!
There has been some serious accumulation at any break of the $18.50 support zone. As you can see in the chart, the buying has been getting more aggressive as the price is making higher lows. Another nice thing about this chart is that the volatility is very low right now. Great time to buy. Low volatility is preceded by high volatility. In my opinion, the break will be to the upside. If I'm wrong, you'll probably realize it pretty quickly with a relatively small loss. Reward/risk is in your favor.
Hope you are all enjoying the fireworks. I'm here to throw some cold water on that.
We broke the descending trendline in December of 2009 on the 10 Year Treasury Note and now we are finally testing that trendline. We are also closing a gap from 6 months ago. At these yields, investors may start to rotate out of government-backed fixed income securities and back into risky assets. A look at the $SPXEW is proof that zero technical damage has been done to the broad market.
Clearly there are concerns with international markets…. but please, take a look at the McClellan Oscillator and the Put/Call ratio – then tell me with a straight face we're not due for any kind of mean reversion. It looks like the money that went into gold is going to look for a new home while it consolidates. Where do you think it's going to go? Ultra-bearish ETFs or buying equities on weakness to resume the cyclical bull?
Pros: MACD cross-over looks imminent (and above the zero line which is extra sexy), PVO starting to ramp up, already exceeded ST resistance with bullish belt hold candle on high volume, challenging Andrew's Pitchfork resistance, bullish cup & handle pattern on relative strength versus S&P complete with successful test of handle.
Cons: Barron's panned it a few weeks ago.
What do you believe? The charts or the financial media?
Choose wisely, smile and enjoy your day!
Editorial note from Leisa: I made the bloody face smaller.